Sustainable economic development in Bac Ninh province in the period until 2030

us economic development of a province for a long time. Since then, sustainable development in one province has the following characteristics: (i) PTKTBV of the province is the first pillar, the nucleus for sustainable development of the province, (ii) the province's sustainable development also contributes to the implementation of national sustainable development objectives, (iii) provincial development of sustainable development is based on exploiting the strengths of each province, and must link with other provinces to effectively exploit common resources. 2.2.2 Contents of sustainable economic development in the province The contents of PTKTBV in the province include: First, economic growth is maintained: reflected at high growth rates and maintained stably. Economic growth is a necessary condition for economic development, without the increase in the amount of material and services of the economy (economic growth) will not be able to reproduce as well as conditions. to solve other social problems. Second, the quality of growth is high and improved: Sustainable Development is when the growth structure must be reasonable and the resources of growth must be used effectively. Third, equal actors participate in and enjoy the fruits of economic development: Sustainable development must include the content of equality in approaching opportunities and sharing development results, revenue distribution. import. Fourthly, the factors to ensure economic development are regenerated and increased: SEDP is not only an effective use, but also must ensure growth factors, including inputs (labor). , resources, capital), the entities that generate growth (businesses) must be maintained and development maintained and developed. 2.3. Criteria for assessing sustainable economic development in the province To assess the development of sustainable development in the province, the thesis proposes to use the following criteria: Table 2.1: Summary of evaluation criteria for PTKTBV in the province Criteria Targets Request (i) Ability to maintain growth GRDP growth rate higher than national and regional average and maintained over a period of more than 20 years (ii) Quality of growth - Growth structure, including: + Growth structure by input TFP's contribution Increase and reach over 50% + Structure of growth by economic sector Contribution ratio of economic sectors Sectors with advantages of the province, industries with high added value must have high contributions and increase + Growth structure by economic sector Proportion of contribution of the components Non-state sector is high and rising - Efficient use of resources + Labor Unemployment rate Labor force participation rate Labor productivity Reduced and increasingly low Rise and high Rise and high + Capital Increased investment rate in the range of 4 - 4.5 + Resources Production value / ha of agricultural land Occupancy rate of industrial zones and industrial clusters Rise, high (iii) Equality in participation and enjoyment of the fruits of economic development - Poverty rate. - The ratio of income gap Differences between districts are low and decrease Fall and low (iv) The ability to maintain and reproduce the elements of development Maintain and regenerate sources labor - Scale of labor force - Rate of trained labor Meet the requirements of industries and businesses in the area Rise and higher and higher sustainable development of resources and the environment Rate of urban solid waste is collected Proportion of industrial parks and export processing zones operating with centralized wastewater treatment systems meeting environmental standards Forest cover rate Rate of degraded land Rise and day   the higher The ability to maintain capital The increase in investment capital Increase Sustainable development of businesses in the province - Number of enterprises in the area - Profit ratio of the enterprise Increase 2.4 Factors affecting sustainable economic development in the province 2.4.1 Objective factors Natural conditions: The natural conditions of each locality include geographical location, climate, conditions of natural resources and minerals, potential to create development levels, etc. Socio-cultural conditions: Some conditions for local economic development such as social and ethnic conditions (customs, customs, culture, etc.). National, regional and global environment: The common economic, political and social environment on the national, regional as well as global level are the factors that greatly affect the development and development of a locality, especially in the context of current globalization and deep integration. Legal documents, institutions, national development policies: National lines and policies are the legal basis and are the basis for localities in or formulating development policies if the policy lines appropriately, a comprehensive and comprehensive legal document system will help the locality facilitate the policy formulation, development directions and vice versa. 2.4.2 Subjective factors Local legal documents, institutions, development policies: guidelines, policies (national policies), specific legal documents, institutions, and measures of each country and each locality will be the An important factor affecting the success or failure of development and sustainable development of the whole community. Capacity of local government apparatus: The quality of local government apparatus will affect the quality of local governance thereby affecting the local socio-economic development in general and PTKTBV in particular. Economic-technical infrastructure: Technical-economic infrastructure is the lifeblood system of the economy, which is responsible for making the relations between the parts and regions of the economy; create basic and necessary conditions for production, promote production and business activities to develop and build a modern society, and play a role in promoting the development of regional and international economic integration. ; ensure ecological environment and national security. Mechanism and policies for mobilizing, managing and using resources: In order to develop economy, it is indispensable for resources. These are the physical factors that determine economic growth. The necessary resources for the economy include human resources, capital and science and technology. The mobilization of management, supervision and use of resources for the implementation of sustainable economic development is of great significance. Perceptions of business owners, workers and residents about SEDP: If business owners, workers and residents are well qualified, aware of the sustainable development policies of the state, the locality, the provisions of law related to sustainable development, knowledge of production, sustainable consumption ... will be a condition to ensure sustainable development and vice versa. 2.5 Experience of international and domestic localities on sustainable economic development Based on the specific situation of Bac Ninh, the thesis has chosen to study experiences of Kanagawa provinces of Japan, Zhejiang provinces of China and Binh Duong provinces of Vietnam. Based on the experience of the above-mentioned provinces, some lessons can be drawn as follows: Firstly, to achieve a high growth rate and efficiency in the process of economic development, it is necessary to bring into full play the comparative advantage comparisons and strengths of the province. - Secondly, environmental protection and improvement should be integrated in all activities of the province; Thirdly, there should be policies to ensure social justice in the development process. Including equity in participation in generating growth and equity in enjoying the fruits of growth; Fourthly, it is necessary to expand domestic and foreign relations really to bring about rapid socio-economic development. CHAPTER 3 CURRENT SITUATION OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC ON THE BAC NINH PROVINCE 3.1. Overview of Bac Ninh province 3.2. Situation of sustainable economic development in Bac Ninh 3.2.1 Ability to sustain economic growth The growth rate is quite high, with the growth rate in general reaching over double digits, the latter period is higher than the previous period, exceeding the target set in Agenda 21 of Bac Ninh (13%). However, the economic growth of Bac Ninh in the period of 2011-2018 is not stable. Table 3.1: VAT growth of Bac Ninh by industry and economic sector 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total 27,90 21,07 47,65 (4,97) 13,00 8,22 23,96 10,64 Growth of economic sectors (%) Agriculture 5,99 -24,00 (1,57) 2,18 3,54 (0,02) (2,09) 2,52 Industry 41,14 20,17 61,43 (8,45) 12,86 7,97 29,40 11,60 Service -1,83 50,33 12,44 11,10 15,76 10,89 6,96 7,32 Growth of all economic sectors (%) Government -38,00 9,16 2,80 6,20 8,21 7,28 24,29 8,47 In addition to the state 3,17 -1,45 9,02 9,17 7,26 5,06 10,61 11,51 FDI 105,74 40,71 74,95 -10,68 15,85 9,51 28,84 10,55 Source: Statistical Yearbook of General Statistics Office - Bắc Ninh Statistical Office (2019) Considering growth of economic sectors: (i) Growth of agriculture in the period of 2011-2018 is very low, the lowest among 3 economic sectors and with years of negative growth, the average in the whole period, increases. The growth rate of agricultural sector is -3.24%. (ii) Industrial growth is highest among economic sectors, averaging 17.68% / year, making Bac Ninh the largest industrial production scale among localities, however, no stable, affected by the value of industrial production of foreign-invested enterprises. (iii) Service industry grew lower than industry, and it was also unstable. This shows the trend of shifting production from agriculture to industry and services, however, the development of service industries is limited, not keeping up with the development of industry (growth rate of service sector lower than industry). Thus, it shows the lack of sustainability in Bac Ninh's ability to sustain growth in all economic sectors. In terms of economic sectors: (i) The highest growth area is the area with foreign investment, on average, this area grows 21.8% / year. However, the region's growth is not stable; (ii) Growth of the non-state sector tended to increase, but on average in the 2011-2018 period it was still the lowest growth area, averaging only 7.2% on average. / year, lower than the state sector (9.3% / year) and much lower than the FDI sector. In the period of 2011-2018, the growth of Bac Ninh was higher than the national average, of the Northern key economic region (9.87%) and also the highest among all localities in the region. However, Bac Ninh's GRDP growth is not as stable as other provinces and cities. Figure 3.1: Economic growth rate of Bac Ninh and some provinces Source: Statistical Office of Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Quang Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Hung Yen, Vinh Phuc (2019) The above analysis shows that Bac Ninh's ability to maintain economic growth is quite challenging when the economy is heavily dependent on industry, but mainly on industrial production of the FDI sector. 3.2.2 Quality of growth 3.2.2.1 Structure of growth Growth structure by economic sector: The structure of Bac Ninh's economic sector has recently shifted towards increasing the proportion of industry and reducing the proportion of agriculture. However, there are some inadequacies: (i) the proportion of the service industry has decreased, due to the slower growth of the service industry than industry, (ii) the proportion of industry increased, industry was considered is a breakthrough, but the ratio of VAT / production value of manufacturing industry is not high and tends to decrease. This shows that the unsustainability, processing and manufacturing industry is still mainly processing and assembling. Table 3.3: Contribution of industries to Bac Ninh economic growth 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Contribution to economic growth in points% Agriculture 0,67 (2,23) (0,09) 0,09 0,15 (0,00) (0,07) 0,07 Industry 27,62 14,95 45,18 (6,80) 9,96 6,17 22,69 9,35 Service (0,40) 8,36 2,57 1,74 2,89 2,05 1,34 1,22 Total 27,90 21,07 47,65 (4,97) 13,00 8,22 23,96 10,64 Đóng góp vào tăng trưởng của các ngành kinh tế theo tỷ lệ % Agriculture 2,41 (10,61) (0,19) 1,71 1,14 (0,01) (0,31) 0,66 Industry 99,01 70,94 94,81 -136,80 76,61 75,08 94,71 87,89 Service (1,42) 39,66 5,38 35,09 22,25 24,93 5,60 11,45 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 -100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 Source: Calculated from NGKK Statistical Office of Bac Ninh (2018), (2019) Considering the contribution of industries to the growth of VAT in Bac Ninh, it shows that: (i) the role of agriculture in Bac Ninh's economic growth is very small, even for many years in the period of 2011-2018, plays Its contribution to the growth of VAT in Bac Ninh is still negative (above table), due to the negative growth of agriculture; (ii) Playing a decisive role in Bac Ninh's VAT growth is industry, generally contributing over 70% of Bac Ninh's economic growth, (iii) the service sector's contribution is quite limited and not Stable, generally below 20%. Among service sectors, the largest contributor to the growth of Bac Ninh is traditional trade in services (wholesale and retail), the contribution of high quality service sectors (with high VAT such as banking and finance) in Bac Ninh's economic growth is still very limited. Advantageous industries such as transportation and logistics have not yet been fully exploited, thus the contribution to growth is limited. The above analysis shows that the selection of developing industries and specific products with high efficiency for economic development of Bac Ninh is still limited, not promoting the local advantages. Growth structure by economic sector: Table 3.5: Contribution of regions to Bac Ninh's economic growth 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Contribution to growth of economic sectors in points% Government (7,24) 0,85 0,23 0,36 0,53 0,45 1,49 0,52 In addition to the state 1,56 (0,58) 2,91 2,19 1,99 1,32 2,68 2,59 FDI 33,58 20,80 44,50 (7,51) 10,48 6,45 19,78 7,52 The whole province 27,90 21,07 47,65 (4,97) 13,00 8,22 23,96 10,64 Contribution to growth of economic sectors as a percentage Government -25,97 4,02 0,49 -7,24 4,09 5,50 6,24 4,92 In addition to the state 5,59 -2,74 6,12 44,01 15,29 16,02 11,17 24,38 FDI 120,37 98,72 93,39 151,25 80,62 78,48 82,59 70,71 The whole province 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: Calculated from NGKK Statistical Office of Bac Ninh (2018), (2019) From the above figures, some comments can be drawn as follows: Firstly, with the highest growth rate among the three economic sectors, the contribution of FDI sector in the growth of the whole province is always the largest among economic sectors.In 2018, the FDI sector contributed above 70% in Bac Ninh economic growth. This proves that economic growth of Bac Ninh is highly dependent on FDI sector. However, it can also be seen that the percentage of contribution of the FDI sector has gradually decreased, from almost completely deciding the economic growth of Bac Ninh in the years 2011-2012, up to now, this area has contributed only. 70-80%. Demonstrating the dependence of Bac Ninh's economy on this region has gradually decreased, the role of the domestic economic sector has increased. Secondly, with the trend of faster growth in recent years, the role of this area has gradually improved, contributing more and more to the economic growth of Bac Ninh. However, the role of the non-state sector in Bac Ninh's economic growth is still small. Shows the instability in the economy's internal dependence on foreign regions. Growth structure by input factors: Using Data Analysis function in Excel to estimate the Cobb - Dougalss regression function of Bac Ninh GRDP with inputs (capital, labor, TFP), calculate the contribution function of the inputs economic growth of Bac Ninh. The most contributing factor in Bac Ninh's economic growth is TFP, in the period of 2011-2018, this factor contributes nearly 60% in Bac Ninh's economic growth, much higher than the contribution of TFP. in Vietnam's economic growth in the same period (25.85%). This reflects the economic growth model of Bac Ninh has begun to move to the depth-based growth model. Reflecting the progress of growth structure based on input of Bac Ninh. However, the contribution of TFP in the period of 2016-2018 is lower than that of the period 2011-2015, indicating the lack of sustainability from the growth structure of input. 3.2.2.2 Resource use efficiency a. Labor efficiency The unemployment rate of Bac Ninh in the period of 2011-2018 is also not stable, in the period of 2011-2013, the unemployment rate decreased significantly, in 2013, the unemployment rate decreased to only 1.45%, but next year 2014-2015 tends to increase again. In the 2016-2018 period, the unemployment rate continued to increase. However, labor in the non-state sector decreased rapidly in the period of 2015 - 2018, showing the lack of sustainability in Bac Ninh's economic intrinsic and the risk of Bac Ninh if it could not retain investors. foreign. Besides, when looking at unemployed workers in Bac Ninh, there is a competition between domestic human resources and migrant workers. The province attracts many migrant workers from other localities, while the province's labor is still redundant or working in agriculture with low income. Analysis of labor use efficiency based on labor productivity indicators shows that: The labor productivity of Bac Ninh province increased over the years, from 71.73 million VND / labor / year in 2010, in 2018 increased to 233.82 million VND / person / year (at a fixed price) (far exceeding that of The target set in the Agenda 21 of Bac Ninh is USD 3,900-4,000). Bac Ninh is the locality with the highest labor productivity among localities in the Northern key economic region. At the same time, in the period of 2015-2018, the growth rate of labor productivity in Bac Ninh was also higher than that of localities in the Northern key economic region so the labor productivity gap between Bac Ninh and most localities in the region (except Vinh Phuc). ) increase. This proves that the labor efficiency of Bac Ninh increases and increases faster than the localities in the Northern key economic region. However, in the whole period of 2011-2018, it showed that the increase of labor productivity in Bac Ninh province was not stable, even there were five labor productivity declines leading to a negative growth rate of Bac Ninh labor force (2014), besides, In the period of 2015 - 2018, the growth rate is generally lower than that of the period 2011-2015. Besides, a comparison between the growth rate of labor productivity and the GRDP growth rate of Bac Ninh shows that, in general, the growth rate of labor productivity is lower than the growth rate of GRDP. It shows that Bac Ninh's GRDP growth still relies on increasing number of employees. These manifestations indicate a lack of sustainability in terms of employer efficiency. The unsustainability in terms of employment will be clearer when analyzing the province's labor productivity by economic sector and by economic sector, specifically as follows: By economic sector, although increasing over the years, the non-state sector still has the lowest labor productivity, the labor productivity of this sector is only about 38% of the average labor productivity of the whole province. This is because the non-state sector is still mainly small-scale business and production activities. The state sector has higher labor productivity than that of the non-state sector, but labor productivity of this sector decreased during 2010-2013, and tends to recover from 2014, however, until 2018 The labor productivity of 2010 is not yet reached. By economic sector: Labor productivity of all sectors increased, in which, industry was the industry with the highest growth rate (10.06% / year in the period of 2011-2018). However, the growth rate of service labor productivity of the service sector is lower than that of agriculture, on average in the period of 2011-2018, the labor productivity of the service sector only increased by 5.33% / year, while the agriculture sector was 9.2%. /year. This again proves that the province's high value-added service industries have not developed strongly but mainly traditional services, with low added value (as analyzed above). b. Efficient use of capital The ratio of investment capital / GRDP of Bac Ninh is relatively high (often over 40% since 2012, much higher than the national average (below 33%), which is again for Bac Ninh's economic growth is heavily based on investment capital, Bac Ninh's growth rate calculation shows that this ratio has increased rapidly, but still lower than the national average and lower than some localities with similar characteristics to Bac Ninh, proving that the efficiency of using VT in Bac Ninh is quite good. c. Effective land use The efficiency of agricultural land use in Bac Ninh has been slowly improved, the value of cultivation and aquaculture products has been obtained per 1 hectare of arable land and water surface for aquaculture has grown slowly. Even the value of products obtained per hectare of aquaculture surface in the period of 2015-2018 tends to decrease (based on 2010 fixed prices). This is also the reason why Bac Ninh's agricultural land area decreases, people abandon fields, thereby contributing to the decline of agricultural growth over the past time. Bac Ninh's industrial park occupancy rates are relatively high, higher than the national average, higher than most provinces in the Northern key economic region, only lower than in Hanoi. It proves that the attraction of investment in industrial zones in Bac Ninh is relatively good, the land planned for development of industrial parks is used relatively efficiently.  3.2.3 Equality in participation and enjoyment of the fruits of economic development The poverty rate in all districts of Bac Ninh has decreased and the level of poverty gap among districts has also decreased, showing that the regions are created an equal opportunity to participate in economic activities fairly and equity in enjoyment of the fruits of growth. This is due to the fact that Bac Ninh has recently attracted investment in developing industrial zones in poor districts (Que Vo, Gia Binh, Thuan Thanh, Yen Phong ...). Inequality in income distribution in Bac Ninh has generally improved in recent years. The expression: the income proportion of 40% of the population with the lowest income has improved and is always greater than 17%, proving that Bac Ninh's income distribution is relatively equal; The income gap between the highest income quintile and the lowest income quintile decreased from 7.3 times in 2010 to 6.59 times in 2016, then increased to 6.93 times in 2018, this number of times Bac Ninh is much lower than the average of the Red River Delta and most localities in the region, the income gap between urban and rural areas of Bac Ninh is mainly less than 1.5, much lower than that of country. However, Bac Ninh's participation in the process of economic growth is not entirely equal to those in rural areas. At the same time, there is still a disparity in poverty among districts / towns, Yen Phong, Tien Du, Gia Binh and Luong Tai districts still have a much higher poverty rate than Bac Ninh city and town. From Son. It proves that rural areas and poor districts are still less involved in the growth process. In addition, the inequality in growth participation also takes place between economic sectors, leading to large disparities in income between industries. While businesses investing in industry receive a lot of incentives, agricultural or service producers have not received adequate attention, leading to the income gap between regions. increasing as analyzed above. 3.2.4 Ability to maintain and reproduce the elements of development a. Maintain and regenerate labor resources In recent years, the labor force aged 15 and above in Bac Ninh increased rapidly, due to labor migration, the immigration rate in Bac Ninh is very high, over 11%. This poses a problem for Bac Ninh's economic growth is the shortage of labor as investors expand production, besides the problem of migrant labor is causing many difficulties for the province to stabilize. labor force, pressure on housing and social infrastructure, affecting the order and security in the area. These are also social issues that bring many issues to the locality. The labor quality of Bac Ninh is also constant