Vietnamese government's role in economic management during crises

INTRODUCTION 4

CHAPTER I : THEORY ON CRISIS AND CRISIS PREVENTION 8

1.1 What is economic crisis ? j

1.2 Keynes' theory on crisis and crisis prevention (

1.3 Market economy models in the world K

1.3.1 Feature of free market economy

1.3.2 Features of social market economy

1.3.3 Economic institution of developed government model

1.4 Government' role in crisis and measure to overcome crisis I

CHAPTER 2 : GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES IN CRISIS 13

2.1 Policy of US Government 1

2.2 Policy of Japanese Government 1-

2.3 Policy of Chinese Government I

2.4 Policy of Vietnamese Governineiil 1

CHAPTER 3 : THE ROLE OF STATE AND METHOD TO SOLVE CRISIS 22

3.1 The role of the State in crisis 2!

3.2 Relation between the role of the State and method to treat crisis 2.

CHAPTER 4 : IMISING THE ROLE OF STATE IN MANAGING TO PREVEP

CRISIS IN VIET NAM i3

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problems. However, if the Slate interferes so much then it can create man> great damages tor the econom)- such as planning economy in the old model of socialist nations. IR PlHun Thj Mt>ng Di<;p. "The role of state in market economy from some theories applied into Viet Nam". 35 The problem is to find out flexibility in state's management. Applying both hands: tangible hand and intangible hand to promote market economy to develop. In term of this problem, Viet Nam must implement the following problems: - Raising function of State management in term of economy: the State in market economy according to socialist orientation must implement macro management via tools of economy, law, administrative. To do this, it must improve management machine of the State in term of economy including: improving administrative machine, administrative procedures, raising quality of cadres ... - Define the lunction of the State: reality has shown that the State must join in economy but must orient and define preferential trends. - Focus on welfares problems: the Stale orients lo socialism and sustainable development. It means that apart from economic target, social targets must be focused. If Viet Nam can define clearly the role of the State in market economy according lo socialist orientation including the harmony of relation between the role of the State and market and implementation of such role then il can maintain dexelopmenl and the economic strength will be ensured in crisis. 3. Raising the effect to cope with crisis : Via analysis, we can see that the usage of Ke>nes theories in crisis is compulsor> thing. However, to reach the highest effect there must be concrete solutions. The writer has proposed some following tasks: Apply economic theories such as Keynes theor\- considering national background, raise maximum eflect of each melhod to solve crisis. - Consider limitations and risks of each method. - Comprehensively implement demand stimulus package w ith other solutions such as cun-ency policy, policy to support export, investment aUraclion...there must be solutions for future economic situation. - Monitor and assess demand stimulus package: demand slimulus package must be implemented wilh the large monitoring of the society lo limil negalixc things. After implementation, demand slinnilus package must be assessed in term of target " Ph.im Thj H6ng OivP- "The role of slate in market economy from some theories applied into Viet Nam". 36 fulfillment and influence level on economy in the future to draw experiences as well as better prepare for the next economic policy. CONCLUSION Effect of Keynes theory in saving economy from crisis is not denied; and one oflhe most important factors for demand stimulus package according to Keynes theor>' to reach success is the role of State in economy. According to analysis, the economy that appreciates the role of State in management will be easy to put policies of Kexnes theory into reality to get good results. Such Stales will have lower density of economic stimulus package (compared to Governmental spending) compared to States with the economy appreciating the role of market. Such analysis will gi\c the tact that although economic models haxe their own weaknesses and strengths, patient folloxving market economy according to socialist orientation is the right xxa\. However, in term of preventing economic crisis prevention, apart from focusing on sustainable dexelopmenl. Viel Nam must focus on harmoni/ing the management of the State and the role of market manipulation. This is the best alternative to raise the role of Vietnamese State in preventing economic crisis. 37 References John, A.Garraty.2009. Great economic recession in 1930s.HaNoi encyclopedia pubhshing house. Ducan G, Richard K. & May M.D.2010. The Global Economic Crisis and Developing countries: Impact and Response. Oxfam Intemational Press: Australia. "Can Vietnamese economy overcome American financial storm". VNEconomy. 6/ 10/ 2008, at iet-nam-co-\ uot-qua- con-bao-tai-chinh-mv.htm, searched on I/2/ 2011. International Swap and Derivatives Association.2008. "Summaries of Market sun'ey results", at searched on 2/2/ 20II. Luang Thai Bao. "Keynes and solutions to prevent crisis", ABC magazine on 1/6/ 2009. Hoang Ngoc Hoa. "Models of market economy and market economy according to socialist orientation in Viet Nam", at \v\v\v.fpe.hnuc.cdu.\n. searched on I0/I/20I I. Nguyen Hoang Bao. Ho Hoai Anh, Doan Kim Thanh. "Keynes theory, arguments and pre\ention of economic recession in Viet Nam at nun'. dragula.org/attaehments/207/hoangbao.pdfsearched on I0/I/2011. "Unemployment insurance skips the chance to change". Sai Gon marketing 12/1/ 2009, at hiem that ni'hiep lo co hoi thaN doi-3-: 1368481 .html searched on 2/2/2011. Center to study polic> and dexelopment.20()9. "Demand stimulus package in Viet Nam" at wwxv .;tox vn/stox/dounload.asD'.'id -1528 searched on 2 2 2011. 38 ANZ.2009."Prediction of Vietnamese economy 2009". Internal report on 2/3/ 2009. Habubank securities company.2009." News on market analysis in 2009". ". Internal report on 11/2/2009. "Japan's Economic stimulus package : A waste of money". Telegraph 17' 11 2008. at lapans-economic- stimulus-package-a-waste-of-monev.html searched on 20/4/ 2011. Center to study policy and development.2009. "Policy to prevent recession in Viet Nam. The first study: demand stimulus policy" at ww^v.viet- studies.info/kinhte/ChinhSachChongSuyThoai.pdlsearched on 2/2/ 2011. "Crisis in Japan", VNEconomy, 23 /I I 2009, at Searched on 20/4/2011. American economic data, at emmentspending.com/. searched on 2/2/2011. Japanese GDP in 2008, at China-is-the-worlds-second- largest-economy.html, searched on 24'4/2011. Spending data of Japanese Government, at ikipedia.org, uiki/Cioxernmcnl spending . searched on 24/4/ 2011. Pham Thi 1 long Diep. "The role of the State in market econom> from some theories applied into Viet Nam", at www.ueb.edu.vn/.../vaitrocuanhanuoctrongnenkinhte.pdl searched on 20/4/2011. 39 Ha Van Hoi . ^Social market economy: iheoiy and model of some nations, compared to market economy model according to socialist orientation in Viet Nam", at 2010 12 30T^inhtcthit^ axahoilythuyelvamohinhcuamotsonuocsosanh.pdf searched on 20/4/2011 Vo Thi Thiiy Anh."ProbIems of the first demand stimulus package - experiences for demand stimulus packages in Viet Nam^\ magazine of science and technology of Da Nang University No. 5.2010. Huynh Thanh Dien. ''Analysis of impacts from economic slimulus package in 2009^ Magazine of Science and Appliance no. 10.2010. Components of Japanese demand slimulus package of 81 billion at hUp://www.chinadailv.com.cn/cndv/2009-12/09/conlcnt 9143365.htm, searched on 24/4/ 2011. Components of American demand stimulus package, at and hllp://\v\v\v.321 eold.com edilorials/'sobole\^sobolc\ 01 1909.html, searched on 24/4/ 2011 Components of Chinese demand stimulus package, at http://\vwAv.chinaenvironmentalla\\.com/wp-conlenl uploads 2009 03 investment- port ion.jpg searched on 24/4/2011 DAI HQC UPPSALA, THUY DIEN & ^ . DAI HOC KINH TE, DAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOI ^ A J * UPPSALA " • • UNIVERSITET Cai.«e( 9 KCMDHO f ^ LUAN VAN THAC SY QUAN LY CONG VAI TRO DIEU HANH CUA CHINH PHU VIET NAM TRONC KHIJNG HOANG Tck- gia: NGII YE N T AI T H U HmwgJcln Prof. Or. LARS TORSTEN ERIKSSON Dr. NGI YEN .MANH HI NG Li'/jJ. MPP.M KHOA 1 - Nhom 13 Hii Noi , T h n n « ' 5 - 2 0 1 ! »^' HOCTJPPSALA, THUY Dllis& TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE - OAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOl CHUONG TRiNH THAC Si QUAN LY CONG NGUYEN TAITHU VAI TRO DIEU HANH CUA CHJNH PHU VIET NAM TRONG THOI KY KHUNG HOANG GVhuong dan: GS.TS. Lars-Torsten Eriksson TS. Nguven Manh Hung Ha Noi, Thang 5 Nam 2011 TOM TAT LUAN VAN De tai luan van : Vai tro diiu hanh cua chinh phu Viet Nam trong thai ky khung hoang Cap do luan van : Luan van t6t nghiep - chuong trinh Thac sy quan ly eong Tac gia : Hoe vien Nguyen Tai Thu Giang vien huong dan trong nuae : TS. NGUYEN MANH HUNG Giang vien huong dan Uppsala : GS. TS. LARS-TORSTEN ERIKSSON Thcri diem trinh bay luan van : Thang 5 nam 2011 Muc tieu de tai : Xae djnh moi lien he giua mo hinh nha nuoc vol each thuc xu ly khung hoang, tu do ap dung cho truong hop cua Viet Nam nhAm nang cao hieu qua phong chong va xu ly khiing hoang. Phu'O'ng phap : Sau khi thu thap cac du lieu tu cac nguon thu cap tin cay, tac gia su dung phuong phap ihong ke, phan tich so lieu, so sanh tuomg quan... de lam ro van de nghien cuu. Sau khi phan tich cac ly thuyet lien quan den de tai. tac gia dat ra cac gia thiet nghien cuu va su dung 4 quoc gia de phan tich trong do 2 quoc gia theo mo hinh the che kinh te thj truong xa hoi ehu nghia, moi quoc gia theo mo hinh Kinh te ihj Iruong tu do va mot quoc gia theo mo hinh Nha nuoc phat trien. do la cac truong hgp ciia : My, Nhat Ban, Trung Quoc. va Viel Nam. Cac truong hop nghien ci'ru dugc ihuc hien o day du cac \'an de nhu : qu\' mo , tinh chat \ a cau phan goi kich cau , sau do dugc tap hgp thanh hang so sanh nham chung minh linh dung dan cua eac gia thuyet nghien ciru. Cac kel luan dugc ap dung cho truong hgp cu the cua Viijt Nam nhfun dua ra cac kien nghj ve chinh saeh phong va chong khung hoang trong luong lai. Ket qua va ket luan : Hieu qua cua ly thuyet Keynes trong viec giai ciru cac nen kinh {^ khoi khunu hoaniz la khowz the phu nhan \a mot trong cac yeu to quan trpng nh5t d(} cac goi kicli cAu thco ly thu>Ct Keynes dai duac thanh cong chinh la vai tro ciia nha nircVc trong cac nen kinh tC\ Thco phan lich. nhfrng ncn kinh te de cao vai tro eua nha nuoc trong dilu hanh se dl dang dua dugc cac chinh saeh theo ly thuyet Keynes vao ap dung va thu dugc kat qua nhanh chong. Nhung nha nuoc nay cung se co ty trong goi kich thich kinh tl nho hon (so voi chi tieu chinh phu) so vai cac nha nuoc co nen kinh te dl cao vai tro cua thi truong. Vi?c phan tich nay dua ra nhan djnh rSng mac du cac mo hinh kinh tl co nhung uu - nhuge diem khac nhau, nhung viec kien tri theo mo hinh kinh tl thj truong dinh huong xa hoi ehu nghla cua Viet Nam la con duong dung d^n. Tuy nhien, xet rieng ve phuong dien phong chong khung hoang kinh tl, hen canh ehu trong phat triln ben viJng, Viet Nam can phai dung hoa dugc vai tro quan ly cua nha nuoc va vai tro tu dieu tiet ciia thj truong . Do la phuong an tot nhSt de nang cao vai tro ciia nha nuoc Viet Nam trong phong va ch6ng khiing hoang kinh tl. De xuat cho nghien ciVu trong tu'o'ng lai : Trong gioi han ciia luan van, vice tim hieu moi quan he giua do mo ciia kinh te thi truong trong cac mo hinh nha nude va anh huong ciia no tai cac giai phap chong khung hoang kinh tl chua dugc nghien cuu. Trong tirong lai, luan van co the di thco lurong nghien cuu na> nham muc dich dua ra nhirng ham y chinh saeh ve van de kinh te thj truong cua cac mo hinh nha nude trong phong va chong khung hoang kinh te, Dong gop eiia luan van : Nhirng ket luan cua luan \ an cho tha\ tam quan trong ciia vice dung hoa dugc \ ai tro quan ly cua nha nude va vai tro tu dieu tiet cua thi truong trong cong tac phong va chong khung hoang. Neu \'ai tro quan ly ciia nha nude doi voi nen kinh te bi xem nhe thi khi xay ra khung hoang kinh le viec \an dung cac goi kich thich kinh te theo ly thuyet ciia Keynes se rat kho khan va ton kem. Nhung van de bo sung cho luan van : Tac gia da Ihirc hicn bd sung hoan thien luan van sau buoi seminar nhu sau : - Bo sung thcMn cac ly thuyll kinh tl vT md va quan diem ciia cac hoc thuyet ve chong khung hoang nhu ly ihuyll hau Keynes, ly thuyet irgng tien... - Bd sung nhfrng han che ciia ly lhu> cl Ke\ nes - Sap xep va he thdng lai danh muc tai lieu tham khao Tir khoa : Vai tro ciia ly thuyet Keynes, moi quan he giua md hinh nha nude va phucmg thuc xu ly khiing hoang, gdi kich thich kinh tl... MUC LUC MO DAV 4 Chucrng 1 : LY THUYET VE KHUNG HOANG VA CHONG KHUNG HOANG 8 1.1 Khung hoang kinh t l la gi ? ^ 1.2 Ly thuyet ve kinh t l vTmd va khiing hoang kinh te 1 ' . . " " ^^ ! ' 8 1.3 Ly thuyet cua Keynes ve khiing hoang va chdng khiing hoang ! ! . . ^ . . * , . ! . " ' I " 9 1.4 Ly thuyet kinh t l hau Keynes jn 1.5 Ly thuylt irong t i ln .Q 1.6 Cac md hinh nha nude kinh t l thi irudng tren th i gidi 10 1.6.1 Dac diem ciia md hinh l h i ch i kinh t l thj Irudngtirdo H 1.6.2 Dac diem ciia md hinh th i ch i kinh t i l h i Irudng xa hdi 11 1.6.3 The che kinh te ciia md hinh nha nude phat tricn I) 1.7 Vai tro ciia nha nude trong khiing hoang va eac phuong ihi'rc giai quvct khung hoang . I I Chuong 2 : CAC C H I N H SACH CUA C H I N H PHU TRONG KHUNG HOANG 14 2.1 Chinh saeh cua ehinh phu My 14 Bang 2.1 : Co* cau goi kich eau ciia My 15 2.2 Chinh saeh cua chinh phu Nhat Ban 15 2.3 Chinh saeh ciia ehinh phu Trung Quoc 17 2.4 Chinh saeh cua ehinh phii Vict Nam 19 Chuong 3 : VAI TRO CUA NHA NUOC VA PHUONG THUC XU LV KHUNG HOANG 26 3.1 Vai tro eiia nha nuoe trong khiing hoang 26 3.2 Moi lien he giua vai tro eiia nha nude \a phirong thire xu ly khung hoang 27 Chuong 4 : NANG CAO VAI TRO CUA NHA NUOC TRONG DitU HANH CHONG KUlfNG HOANG TAI VIET NAM 37 BIEU DO VA BANG Bang 2.1 : Co cau gdi kich cau ciia My Bang 2.2 : Co cau gdi kich cau cua Nhat Ban Bang 2.3 : Co cau gdi kich cau ciia Trung Quoc Bang 2.4 : Tdng hgp cac chinh saeh cua gdi kich cau sd 1 cua Viet Nam Bang 2.5 : Hieu qua kich thich ciia cac chinh saeh kich cm Bang 2.6 : Chinh saeh cat giam lai suat co ban va thuc tl lai suat tilt kiem- cho vay 2008 Bang 2.7 : Co cau gdi kich cau sd 1 ciia Viet Nam Bang 2.8 : Quy md chi ngan saeh so vdi GDP ciia Viet Nam va mgl sd nude Chau A Bang 3.1 : Mdi quan he giua md hinh nha nude va tinh chat gdi kich thich kinh te Bang 3.2 : So sanh quy md gdi kich cau ciia cac nude r Bang 3.3 : Ty le so sanh cac gdi kich thich kinh te Bang 3.4 : So sanh cau phan gdi kich cau ciia cac nude Bilu do 3.1 : N^ hiCM^ ciru mdi quan he eiua vai tro nha nude va gdi kich thich kinh te Bieu do 3.2 : CSu phan goi kich cau cua My Bitni dd 3.3 : Cau phan goi kich cau cua Nhat Ban Bidu dd 3.4 ; Cau phin goi kich cau cua Irung Quoc Bieu dd 3.5 : Ciiu phan goi kich cau cua Viet Nam CAC KY HIEU VIET TAT MBS Mortgage Backed Securities CDS Credit Default Swap GDP Gross Domestic Product CPI Consumer Price Index FED Federal Reserve System VAT Value Added Tax TARP Troubled Asset Relief Program ODA Official Development Assistant FDI Foreign Direct Investment CPI Consumer Price Index MO DAU I. Tinh cap thiet ciia de tai: Dk tai khung hoang kinh tC- luon la d6 tai dugc nhi^u nguai quan tam vi tinh anh huang Ciia nd ddi vdi xa hdi. Cuoc khung hoang kinh t l tir nua cudi nam 2008 da gay ra nhung tac dgng tieu cue din nen kinh te toan cSu, dSy nin kinh t l thi gidi vao mot cuoc suy thoai nang nl nhdt kl tu sau the chicn lan thu 2. Cuoc khiing hoang kinh te nay xuat phat tir nude My khi tinh trang cho vay mua nha dudi chuan ciia My tang cao. cong vdi vice cac td chuc lai ehinh pho Wall da the chi hoa cac khoan vay nay va phal hanh ra nude ngoai dudi dang trai phicu bai dgng san. Loai hinh trai phicu la Mortgage Backed Securities - MBS va hgp dong bao lanh ng khd ddi Credit Default Swap - CDS da khien trong 22.000 ty USD gia Irj bat dgng san lai M\ thi ed tdi hon 12.000 ly USD la tien di vay, trong dd khoang 4.000 l> USD la ng xau ' .long sd CDS xjoc tinh khoang 35 nghin ty USD, va loan the gidi khoang 54.600 ly USD' . Cac nude khac cung bat chudc Hoa Ky va ban ra loai trai phicu phai sinh MBS nay trong thj truong tai chinh ciia hg, Chinh tir ngu\en nhan tiem an nay, su sup dd ciia ngan hang Lehman Brothers va sau dd la AIG va hang tram ngan hang khac da cham ngdi cho cuoc khiing hoang, keo theo hang loat nude khac . Tir cuoc dai suy thoai kinh tl thap nien 1930 cho den cuoc khiing hoang kinh te 2008, chiing la da nhan ihAy cd nhieu dieu can phai xem xet. Mac dii cac cuoc khung hoang kinh le d cac nude co ban la gidng nhau va sir hgp tac giua cac qudc gia la can thiet de chan dirng nd \ihirng cung giong nlur dai su\ thoai kinh te thap nien 1930. chiing la nhan ihAy cd nhilu sir khac biel trong each xu ly khung hoang kinh te 2008 cua cac chinh phu. Trong cuoc dai suy thoai nhung nam 1930, cac qudc gia mac dii \an cdng nhan su hirp tac la can thiet dl ngan chan suy thoai tu\ nhiCMi cac nude van cd tinh iim kiem Igi ich cho nguoi dan nude minh iren su thict hai cua nguoi dan nude khac. ' "Kinh li \%H Nam ccS yu,n qua con b3o tai chinh My \ W£c«nomv 6 thang 10 2008 ' international Swap and Dcnvat.vcs Association.2008. "Summancs of Market suney results ' John 2009. pp 7 Hom nira, thoi ky nay cac phuong thuc giai quylt cua tirng nuoc la rk khac nhau \ a do khong CO sir hgp tac t6t trong viec d6i pho voi nhirng v4n d'% kinh t6 chung. t^ t ca cac quoc gia deu phai ganh chju nhirng thiet hai khung khiep trong thap nien suy thoai 1930. Nguyen nhan cuoc khiing hoang thoi ky nay cung khong dugc xae dinh ro rang. Thu tuang Anh thai do la Ramsay MacDonald quy su sup do nay cho ehu nghia tu ban. Nguai Dire cho rang cuoc suy thoai co ngu6n goe chinh trj va xuat phat do den bii chien tranh qua Ion. Nguai Phap cho rang chinh chinh saeh tien te vo trach nhiem ciia Anh va chinh saeh "xuat khau nan that nghiep" ciia My •* Tu tuong kinh te thong trj trong thai ky nay la Ly thuyCn kinh tc tu dieu chinh - cho rang cung sc tu dong tao ra cau, co che thj truong se lam cho tat ca moi mat cua ncMi kinh te tu ban chii nghia tro nen can doi. khong can phai co su dieu tiet ciia nha nuoc vao kinh te, chii truong tu do tha noi, tu do canh tranh. tu do san xuat. tu do mua ban. Chinh tu tuong nay cung da khien cho khung hoang kinh te 1929-1933 tram trong han. Voi cuoc khung hoang nam 2008, cac nuoc da co nhirng buoc di rieng cho UCMI kinh te nuoc minh biin canh nhung tu tuong hgp tac trong xir ly khung hoang. Ben canh viec nguyen nhiin khung hoang 2008 dugc xae djnh cu the, vice cac nuoc da CO nhirng hanh dgng kip thoi va dung dan cung nhu sir Ien ngai cua tu tuong kinh te Keynes trong xir ly khung hoang da giiip linh hinh kinh te the gioi on dinh hon. Ro rang, co mot moi lien he giua nhrrng dac diem ricng cua tirng nude da tac dong den phuong phap xir ly khimg hoang ciia nhirng nha nude do \a \iec xae dinh dugc moi lien he nay sc giiip hiCni ro hon ban chat cua cac phirong phap \u ly khung hoang cua cac nha nude, tir dd cd the nang cao hieu qua trong phong chdng va xir ly khung hoang. 2. Ly do chon de tai va muc tieu ciia dc tai: Nhin nhan tdng thC-. tac gia nhan My cd mot sir Uen he mat thiC-t giua vai tro cua nha nude vdi phucrng phap xu ly khung hoang hiC-n nas- cua cac chinh phu. Vi vay tac gia chgn hirdng nghien ciru tim hieu NC- : I'ai tro diiu lianli cua chinh phu Vi^t Nam ironi^ thai Av khung lioang. Myc tieu cua dC tai la xae dinh duac mdi lien he giira md hinh nha nude vdi each thuc xu ly khung hoang. tir dd ap dung cho trirdng hgp cua Vict Nam nham nang cao hi^u qua phdng chong \ a xu l\ khung hoang. * John 2009. pp 10 3. Tinh hinh nghien cihi: Lien quan dSn vkn dS khung hoang kinh tl, da cd r^t nhiau 6k tai nghien euu dudi cac goe do khac nhau. Chinh phu va eae Bo nganh d Viet Nam cung da ed nhi^u tai lieu chuyen de va hoi thao ban ve van dk khiing hoang va hau khung hoang. Cac da tai ed muc tieu nghien ciru rk da dang va da dua ra dugc nhiSu kk luan cdn luu y. Trong pham vi lien quan din vSn dk ma luan van nghien cim. tac gia luu y din eac ket luan sau : - Chinh saeh kich c4u ciia Viet Nam la cSn thilt nhung chua hoan toan dat dugc cac muc dich cua gdi kich c4u - Trong dl tai "Cac vin dl ciia gdi kich ckn thu nhk- Bai hoc kinh nghiem cho gdi kich cau cua Viet Nam"" cua Vo Thi Thiiy Anh (2010) tap trung nghien ciru ve hieu qua cua gdi kich cau thir nhat. Tac gia da chi ra 10 vdn di con ton tai trong gdi kich cau va tir dd dua ra cac bai hgc kinh nghicMii \e kich cau cho Viet Nam. - Nhieu nude tren the gidi nhu My. Anh. Trung Quoc va ca Viet Nam dang thuc hien goi kich thich kinh tc mang nang tinh sua sai \a khong mang nhilu tinh kich thich theo diing nghla ciia ly thuyet Kc>ncs. dilu na\ dugc the hien trong nghien cuu "Ve chinh saeh chdng suy thoai d Viet Nam hien na\. NghiC-n ciru sd 1 : Chinh saeh kich cau". Tac gia Nguyen Dire Thanh va cac tac gia (2008) da nghien ciru tinh kha thi cua cac giai phap huy dgng vdn cho chinh saeh kich cau \a giai phap kich cau theo cac thanh phan cua nen kinh te. - Ly thuyet Keynes la ly thuyet quan trong nhiit trong van de ngan chan su\ thoai. Tac gia Nguyen Hoang Bao, Hd Hoai Anh, Doan Kim Ihanh (2008) trong dc tai" I y thu>et Keynes, cac tranh cai va ngan chan suy thoai kinh te d Viet Nam" da di sau vao phan tich ly thuyet ciia Keynes, cac tranh cai quanh hoc thu>et na}' \a dua ra cac ggi y mang tinh ly thuyet cho \ iec kich cau d Viet Nam. - Vai trd ciia nha nude trons nIn kinh tc thi trudntz duoc the hien ro trone nhieu ly thuycM kinh ii ( nhu Tan cd dicn. Keynes. Chu nghla tu do mdi..) \a trong nghien cuu " Vai trd cua nha nude trong ncMi kinh tc thj truong tu mot sd hoc thu\ et kinh te can. hicn dai va van dung vao Vict Nam", tac gia Pham Thi Hdng Diep (20U8) khang dinh nha nude trong ncn kinh tC thi trirdng dinh hirdng Xa hdi chii nghla d Vict Nam cd \ ai trd quan trong trong cac chinh sacli chdng khiing hoang. - Trong nghiCMi cuu "^Thc Glohal l-conomic Crisis and Developing Countries: Impact and Response" cua cac tac gia Duncan Green, Richard King, and Ma} Miller-Dawkins ac tac gia da nghien ciru tac dong ciia khung hoang den Viet Nam va mot sd ean d nhieu khia canh nhu viec lam, dn dinh xa hoi. luong thuc... va du bao 1 td cd kha nang anh huong den su phue hdi nhu : c4u true kinh te. vai trd ciia ;hien cuu cua tac gia, cac nghien cuu ve moi quan he giua mo hinh nha nirac - dieu hanh ciia chinh phu vd each thirc xu ly khung hoang chua dugc da tai nao en. Vi vay tac gia mong mudn dugc nghien cim van d^ khiing hoang kinh t^ tai am tren khia canh nay. Nhiem vu nghien ciiu re hien muc dich ndi tren, de tai cd cac nhiem vu cu the sau day: ; thdng hda nhirng van de ly luan ve khiing hoang kinh tc, cac phuong an giai lyet khiing hoang kinh te tren the gidi. ly thuyet ve vai trd ciia nha nude trong nen nh te han tich cac chinh saeh xu ly khiing hoang va hieu qua cua chinh saeh kich thich inh te d Viet Nam, Trung Qudc, My, Nhal Ban. Mian tich, nhan xet tu dd riit ra danh gia ve mdi quan he giua Md hinh nha nude - ^ai trd ciia nha nude va cac chinh saeh chdng khung hoang ciia cac nha nude dd De xu5t mot sd giai phap nham nang cao kha nang phdng chdng va ddi phd \ di khiing hoang kinh te tai Viet Nam. 5. Cau hoi nghien ciiu : lung cau hoi nghicMi cuu ma de tai mong mudn tra Idi bao gdm : Lieu md hinh nha nude cd anh hirdng d^n cac phirong thuc \ir ly khiing hoang hay hdng? Cach thuc nang cao vai trd dieu hanh ciia Chinh phu Viet Nam trong thoi ky khung loang nhu the nao ? 6. Doi tuong va pham vi nghien cihi Ddi tugng va pham vi nghien ciru cua de tai la \ai trd cua nha nude trong mot sd md hinh kinh \l tai Vict Nam, Trung Qude. My, Nhat Ban, cac chinh saeh cua cac chinh phu na> trong khung hoang N a tim hieu mdi quan he giua x ai trd cua nha nude - chinh saeh chdng khung hoang. Pham N i dua ra cac nhan xet N C^ md hinh nha nuoc, vai trd eua nha nude chi d trong cac vdn d^ lien quan dCn khung hoang kmh te. 7. PhiroTig phap nghien ciru Sau khi thu thap cac du lieu tir cac ngudn thu c5p tin cay, tac gia sir dung phuong phap thong ke, phan tich sd lieu, so sanh tuong quan... dl lam ro vin dl nghien cuu. Nghien ciru lira chon 4 qudc gia dl phan tieh trong do 2 qudc gia theo md hinh thi ehi kinh tl thi truong xa hoi ehu nghla, mot qudc gia theo md hinh Kinh tl thi truong tu do va mot quoc gia theo md hinh Nha nude phat triln, dd la cac truong hgp ciia : My, Nhat Ban, Trung Qudc, va Viet Nam 8. Ket cau ciia de tai: De tai dirge chia thanh 4 ehuong : Mddau Chuong 1 : Ly thuyet ve khiing hoang va chong khiing hoang Chuong 2 : Cac ehinh saeh ciia chinh phu trong khung hoang Chuong 3 : Vai trd cua nha nude va phuong thirc xir ly khung hoang Chuong 4 : Nang cao vai trd cua nha nude trong dilu hanh chong khung hoang tai Viet Nam Ket luan Tai lieu tham khao Chuong 1 : LY THUY ET VE KHUNG HOANG VA CHONG KHUNG HOANG / . / Khiing hoang kinh te la gi ? Khiing hoang kinh tl la sir suy giam cac hoat dong kinh te cua mot

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