Tóm tắt Luận án Research on high technology exports of Vietnam

management mechanism and economic policies in line with international laws and practices. 2.1.4. Types of high-tech products The above-mentioned high-tech goods include 18 products, namely electrical, electronic, telecommunication items, medical instruments, cameras 2.1.5. Theories on exports It can be seen that international trade driven by the exploitation of absolute, comparative and competitive advantages as well as the business environment of the countries results in the trading activities to promote the advantages of each nation. 2.1.6. Characteristics of high-tech - High-tech exports are often the result of the process of increasing investment in research and development. - Export of CNC products is concentrated mainly in some countries, including both developed and developing nations. 6 - Developing countries are catching up with developed ones in the export of high-tech goods. - The comparative advantage of high-tech products in developing countries has increased relatively rapidly in recent years. - Export of high-tech goods in developing countries are under great influence of multinational corporations through FDI. 2.1.7. Research content on high-tech exports 2.1.7.1. Size and growth rate of exports In this part, the thesis examines the trade balance for high-tech goods to see whether there is a trade surplus or deficit of high-tech goods in Vietnam. 2.1.7.2. Export market expansion The goal of expanding the relations for high-tech exports is to diversify export markets; consolidating and fostering the market share of Vietnamese goods in traditional markets; create a breakthrough to expand new potential export markets. 2.1.7.3. Exports restructure Restructuring the export structure of high-tech goods is also of great importance which reveals the change in the relevant manufacturing industry. 2.1.7.4. Competitiveness in high-tech exports Improving product competitiveness is one of the crucial factors in order to expand the export market and increase the scale for high- tech goods. 2.1.8. Factors affecting high-tech exports * Size of the exporting country’s economy * Size of the importing country's economy * Available resources in the field of science and technology * Investment in research and development (R&D) * Inflation * Infrastructure for export activities * Export incentive/ management policy * Distance between two countries * The openness of the exporting country’s economy * International and regional economic links 7 * Foreign direct investment 2.2. Practical basis of high-tech exports 2.2.1. Experience Lessons of high-tech exports from some countries in the world 2.2.1.1. Lesson by Japan 2.2.1.2. Lesson by China 2.2.1.3. Lesson by South Korea 2.2.2. Lessons drawn for Vietnam’s high-tech exports Chapter 3 RESEARCH METHODOLODY 3.1. Research questions 1. What are the main contents of research on high-tech exports? 2. How was Vietnam's high-tech exports in the past time? Specifically: What were the outstanding features of Vietnam's high- tech exports in the 2000-2017 period? What were the major constraints of Vietnam's high-tech exports? 3. What factors affect the export of Vietnam's high-tech goods? 4. What are the key solutions to promote the development of Vietnam's high-tech exports? 3.2. Research Method 3.2.1. Research approach and Analytical framework 3.2.1.1. Research approach a. Systematic approach: This approach is used in assessing internal and external factors that have an impact on Vietnam's high- tech exports. b. Interdisciplinary approach: Based on the limitations and weaknesses in the inter-sectoral linkages, appropriate solutions are proposed. c. Typical Case study (direct study of specific products) With the research content focusing on some of Vietnam's major high-tech products, the corresponding approach of the thesis is the typical case study (on some high-value export products). 3.2.1.2. Analytical framework 8 a. Analytical framework b. Research model analytical framework As shown in Figure 3.1, factors affecting international trade flows are divided into three main categories, namely: factors affecting supply, factors affecting demand, and attracting/ hindering factors Factors affecting supply are those that represent the production capacity of the exporting country such as GDP and population. Figure 3.1: Gravity model in International trade Push Border of exporting country Border of importing country Pull Exporting country Importing country Capacity of exporting country Export promotion/ management policy Distance between 2 countries Export promotion/ management policy Purchasing power of importing country Factors affecting supply Attracting/ Hindering factors Factors affecting demand Factors affecting international trade flows Vietnam’s high- tech exports Size and speed of export development Export markets Restructuring of exports Competitiveness in high- tech exports Factors affecting product supply Factors affecting product demand Favorable and Unfavorable Factors affecting export Solutions for fostering Vietnam’s export of high-tech goods Policies on high-tech export developments 9 Source: Đào Ngọc Tiến (2009) Based on the literature review on previous research models combined with theoretical analysis of the factors affecting high-tech exports as well as the actual conditions of our country, the thesis formulates an analytical framework examining factors affecting Vietnam's high-tech exports. Details are shown in Figure 3.2 below: Figure 3.2: Analytical framework of factors affecting Vietnam’s high-tech exports Source: Author’s synthesis : Direct impact : Indirect impact 3.2.2. Data Collection Method The thesis collects secondary data to obtain assessments on the status of Vietnam's high-tech exports. Data were collected from various sources such as General Statistics Office, General Department of Customs, World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), United Nations 3.2.3. Data synthesis method: 3.2.3.1. Tables, statistical graphs 3.2.3.2. Statistical classification 3.2.4. Data analysis method 3.2.4.1. Descriptive statistics 10 3.2.4.2. Comparative statistical 3.2.4.3. Augmented gravity model 3.2.4.4. Analysis of constant market share 3.3. Research criteria Indicators reflecting the market share of exports and imports Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index Regional Orientation Index (ROI) Trade Intensity Index (TII) Chapter 4 CURRENT SITUATION OF VIETNAM’S HIGH- TECH EXPORTS 4.1. Situation of Vietnam’s exports 4.1.1. International economic integration process of Vietnam Vietnam's economic relations with other countries and international organizations have been increasingly expanded and developed. So far, Vietnam has established diplomatic relations with 185 countries and territories, promoting trade and investment relations with 224 markets on all continents. 4.1.2. Size and growth of merchandise exports 11 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016 Xuất khẩu (tr US$) Nhập khẩu (tr US$) Cán cân TM (Trục phải) Figure 4.1. Trade in goods of Vietnam during 1990-2017 period Source: World Bank, General Department of Customs and author’s caculations, 2018 4.1.3. Export markets 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Đông Á - TBD Châu Âu và Trung Á Mỹ La tinh và Caribe Trung Á và Bắc Phi Bắc Mỹ Nam Á Châu Phi Hạ Sahara Figure 4.2. Export value of Vietnam to other regions in the world during 2000-2017 period Source: World Bank, 2019 Exports (mi. USD) Imports (mi. USD) Trade balance (right axis) East Asia – Pacific Europe & Middle Asia Latin America & Caribe Middle Asia & North Africa North America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 12 The process of international economic integration, multilateralization and promotion of comparative advantages have gained Vietnam trade relations with 224 countries and territories in all continents worldwide. Total export value to East Asia and the Pacific reached over USD 100 billion in 2017, accounting for nearly 47% of Vietnam's total exports. Next come North American countries with 21% of total exports in 2017. Table 4.4. Vietnam’s export turnover of goods by foreign trade standards SITC during 2000-2017 period Unit: million USD Goods categorized by SITC 2000 2005 2010 2011 2013 2015 2017 TTTT BQ (%) Total export value 14482,7 32447,1 72236,7 96905,7 132032,9 162016,7 214019,1 17,17 1. Raw or semi-processed products 8078,8 16100,7 25187,5 33736,7 33782,6 30299,3 34967,6 9,00 - Food & live animals 3779,5 6345,7 13432,5 17442,9 18561,2 20339,5 25036,7 11,76 - Beverages & Cigarettes 18,8 150,0 301,3 358,0 538,1 568,4 473,2 20,89 - Raw materials not for eating, except for fuels 384,0 1229,1 3373,8 4716,1 4742,3 4108,2 5178,0 16,54 - Fuels, lubricants and related materials 3824,7 8358,0 7979,7 11007,8 9685,2 4995,8 4119,6 0,44 - Oil, fats, animal & plant waxes 71,8 17,9 100,2 211,9 255,8 287,4 160,1 4,83 2. Processed or refined products 6397,5 16341,0 47012,5 63106,1 98172,4 131710,7 179043,2 21,65 - Chemicals and related products 158,5 536,0 1881,9 2875,7 3831,6 4098,3 4478,3 21,72 - Processed goods classified by raw materials 911,1 2165,4 8485,6 10874,6 13844,2 17057,5 22191,3 20,66 - Machines, vehicles and other spare parts 1276,0 3145,1 11476,1 18834,9 43027,1 60563,8 89465,9 28,40 - Processed goods 4051,9 10494,5 25168,9 30520,9 37469,5 49991,1 62907,7 17,51 3. Other goods 6,4 5,4 36,7 62,9 77,9 6,7 8,3 1,54 Source: General Statistics Office, 2019 4.1.4. Structure of exporting products In terms of exporting products, there has been a dramatic change in the structure of Vietnam's exports in the past two decades, in which raw or preliminary processed goods have sharply decreased from the proportion of 55.8% of total export turnover in 2000 to 16.3% in 2017. 13 Table 4.5. 10 product groups with the highest export turnover of Vietnam in the period from 2016 to 2017 Unit: Billion US$ Index Product group 2016 2017 Compare 2017 with 2016 (%) 1 Cell phones of all kinds and components 34,32 45,27 31,91 2 Textiles 23,82 26,04 9,32 3 Computers, electronic products and components 18,96 25,94 36,81 4 Footwear products 13,00 14,65 12,69 5 Machinery, equipment, tools and other spare parts 10,11 12,77 26,31 6 Seafood products 7,05 8,32 18,01 7 Wood and wood products 6,96 7,66 10,06 8 Means of transport and spare parts 6,06 6,99 15,35 9 Cameras, camcorders and components 2,96 3,8 28,38 10 Fibers and yarns of all kinds 2,93 3,59 22,53 Total 126,17 155,03 22,87 Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2018 In terms of growth, the group of computers, electronic products and components has the strongest growth with a continuous growth of 36.8% with an export turnover of nearly US $ 26 billion., being asymptotic with textile and garment groups with 26.04 billion US $. In addition, the group of cameras, camcorders and components also saw a strong increase with the continuous growth rate reached about 28.4% in the period of 2016-2017. 4.2. Current situation of Vietnam's export of high-tech products 4.2.1. The scale and growth rate of export of high-tech products In general, we can see the strong growth in exports of high-tech products of Vietnam in the period of 2005-2017. However, Vietnam's exports of high-tech products also focus on a number of key products. Some products such as 524, 712 and 718 have very low export value in the 2005- 2017 period, just under US $ 15 million. The remaining products have an average growth rate of over 100% / year (positive growth) for the whole research period. Some product codes such as 751, 764, 774, 792, 871 have very high average annual growth rate (over 50% / year) showing that with these products, Vietnam has met the needs of the import markets. 4.2.2. Export markets of high-tech products Vietnam's export markets of high-tech goods are expanding in the direction of diversification in different continents. In the early 2000s, hi-tech exports were mainly in countries in the East Asia- 14 Pacific region, especially in Southeast Asia. Exports to East Asia - Pacific accounted for 83% of the total value of high-tech exports in 2000, of which ASEAN accounted for nearly 65%. However, along with the rise of export turnover of high-tech products, there has been a significant change in export markets. Vietnam's export market share of high-tech products in comparison with the world tends to increase significantly in the period 2000-2017. Comparing the average growth rate of Vietnam's export turnover of high-tech products to the world (Vietnam's growth is 31.13%, while the world growth is 5.79%) showing the speed of Vietnam's export growth rate of high-tech products is many times higher than the growth rate of the world. Statistics of 15 countries and territories, which were Vietnam's largest import market of high-tech products in 2017, show that these 15 countries all have a value of Vietnam's imports of high-tech products of over US $ 1.3 billion. Most of Vietnam's top 15 importers of high- tech products grew over 35% during this period, with the exception of Japan and Thailand. In the early 2000s, Japan was the largest importer of high-tech products from Vietnam (US $ 317 million in 2005, the highest among the 15 countries in Table 4.12). 4.2.3. Export structure of high-tech products Table 4.22. Vietnam's exports by technology level in the period of 2000-2017 Product Groups Proportion (%) Average proportion 2000-2017 (%) 2000 2010 2013 2015 2017 I. Raw products 51,73 30,12 21,15 15,07 14,02 8,74 II. Processed products 48,27 69,88 78,85 84,93 85,98 21,47 1. Natural-resources-based products 6,72 8,92 8,17 7,57 6,42 17,09 - Agriculture 3,30 4,81 4,50 4,45 3,71 18,23 - Mineral 3,43 4,12 3,67 3,12 2,70 15,79 2. Low-tech products 31,15 41,01 32,84 35,11 31,88 17,57 - Fabrics, clothes, footwears 26,58 26,96 24,25 26,39 23,45 16,55 - Other products 4,57 14,05 8,58 8,72 8,43 21,71 3. Medium-tech products 4,60 9,23 9,94 9,65 9,79 22,75 - Automobiles 0,53 0,95 1,19 1,15 1,06 22,32 - Processed products 1,12 2,76 3,11 2,47 2,20 22,14 - Mechanical products 2,95 5,53 5,64 6,02 6,53 23,05 4. High-tech products 5,80 10,71 27,90 32,60 37,90 31,13 - Electronics and electricity 5,48 9,87 26,45 30,87 34,81 30,90 - Other products 0,31 0,84 1,45 1,73 3,09 34,34 Total 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 17,41 Source: Author calculates from database of World Bank, 2019 15 To assess Vietnam's export structure in some major markets, Vietnam's export classification by technology level was also calculated for 6 countries and groups of countries (from Table 4.23 to Table 4.28). The research results show that there is a relative difference between the importing countries of Vietnam. While most countries such as the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and ASEAN all reduced their share of imports of raw products during 2000-2017, Germany kept the same share of imports of raw products from Vietnam and even more, there was a slight increase. This is also the country with the average export growth rate of raw products reaching a high level (14.04%) (Table 4.24). However, for the high-tech product group, all 6 research markets have shown a sharp increase in the proportion of total value of imported products from Vietnam such as the United States increased from 0.58% to 21.14 %; Germany increased sharply from 1.25% to 37.21%; South Korea increased from 6.2% to 41.98%; especially China increased dramatically from 0.32% to 46.78% (annual average speed reached 61.45%), while in Japan and ASEAN markets, the growth rate was not as strong as that of ASEAN's growth rate. The annual average for high-tech is 16.44%. High-tech products export to the countries are mainly electrical and electronic products. 4.2.4. The competitiveness of high-tech products Currently, Vietnam's high-tech products exports have begun to gain a foothold in the world market. Some high-tech products such as mobile phones, computers, electronics and components, etc. of Vietnam have been present in many countries in the region and around the world. In order to assess the competitiveness of Vietnam's high products, the author of this thesis uses the calculation results of the Revealed Comparative Advantages index (RCA) as an assessment tool. Calculation results show that: in 18 codes of products of Vietnam's high-tech products group, in 2016, there were 8 codes (codes: 716, 751, 752, 761, 764, 771 776 and 881) have comparative advantages with RCA index> 1. To evaluate the comparative advantage of Vietnam's exported high-tech products, the thesis has calculated the comparative advantage index of high-tech products of Vietnam and 9 other countries. The calculation results show that Vietnam and other countries such as Thailand, China, Mexico and Philippines have relatively similar 16 comparative advantage indexes, that is, these countries compete with each other. For high-tech products in the world market, especially the product code 752 with 7/10 countries has a comparative advantage. Thus, it can be seen that, although there is a comparative advantage in some key products, Vietnam is also facing fierce competition from regional countries, especially Thailand and China. In order to assess the competitiveness of each high-tech product, the thesis uses the "Constant Market Share Model" (CMS) to evaluate the fluctuation of Vietnam's exports of high- tech products. This model assesses the degree of change in the export value of high-tech products depending on three factors: the market demand of the products itself (demand effect); growth of the whole consumer market (structural impact) and competitiveness of goods exported from Vietnam (Nguyen Bich Thuy, 2015). On the basis of using data collected in the period of 2002-2017, Table 4.32, Table 4.33 and Table 4.34 present the results of the analysis of the CMS model on the factors affecting Vietnam's exports of high-tech products in the 3 periods: 2002- 2009, 2010-2017 and 2002-2017. Table 4.32. Competitiveness in Vietnam's export of CNC products in the period of 2002-2009 Code Increase / decrease in exports (US $ million) Demand impact (million US $) Structural impact (million US $) Competitiveness (million US $) 524 11,92 0,19 0,10 11,63 541 37,65 9,39 6,78 21,47 712 0,38 0,00 0,00 0,38 716 424,76 60,63 24,17 339,96 718 1,63 0,11 0,08 1,45 751 1208,88 0,35 0,74 1207,80 752 78,18 16,47 -9,11 70,82 759 133,71 282,56 -249,89 101,04 761 7,55 52,21 38,78 -83,44 764 995,86 91,37 -19,69 924,18 771 257,41 39,11 11,61 206,69 774 21,06 1,05 0,07 19,94 776 207,69 14,88 -7,23 200,04 778 280,58 51,03 -14,26 243,81 792 11,83 3,16 -2,67 11,35 871 1,72 0,09 0,41 1,22 874 59,17 11,75 -3,11 50,54 881 391,06 15,13 -24,75 400,67 Source: Author calculates from figures of the World Bank (2019) 17 In the period 2002-2009, the demand impact for all high-tech products exported to the markets was positive. This means that the growth of Vietnam's exports of high-tech products was first due to the growth in demand for high-tech products in the world. Some high-tech products have a strong increase in demand such as 759 and 761 product groups. These are products with export growth mainly due to the increase in world demand. On the other hand, Vietnam's export of high- tech products in this period generally had a stronger growth than the world growth, reflecting the high level of competitiveness of high-tech products. In addition to the product 761 that has a low level of competitiveness, other products all show very high level of export competitiveness such as products 716, 751, 764, 776, 881. Table 4.33. Competitiveness in Vietnam's export of high-tech products in the period of 2010-2017 Code Increase / decrease in exports (US $ million) Demand impact (million US $) Structural impact (million US $) Competitiveness (million US $) 524 3,2 1,0 -5,0 7,2 541 106,9 8,4 3,2 95,3 712 -0,2 0,1 -0,2 -0,1 716 462,4 111,3 -32,9 383,9 718 9,3 0,2 -0,4 9,5 751 1247,1 251,9 -1368,4 2363,5 752 3390,5 29,2 15,9 3345,3 759 548,7 53,4 274,3 220,9 761 2155,0 6,8 -23,9 2172,1 764 48613,0 414,0 155,5 48043,5 771 825,1 65,8 20,8 738,5 774 110,8 0,9 0,0 109,9 776 8860,0 75,3 240,9 8543,9 778 1398,4 81,1 171,5 1145,8 792 374,0 3,2 7,0 363,7 871 3059,8 2,7 5,9 3051,2 874 395,6 13,3 19,8 362,5 881 2095,1 63,8 256,3 1774,9 Source: Author calculates from figures of the World Bank (2019 The period of 2010-2017 shows a strong growth in Vietnam's exports of high-tech products, focusing on a number of items such as 764, 776, 752, and 871. The strong growth in this period is still mainly explained by the improvement in product competitiveness, while the demand for products and the structural impact generally have little impact 18 on the growth of Vietnam's high-tech products exports. In addition, compared to the period 2002-2009, products 761 and 759 also had a higher level of product competitiveness, of which product 761 had an increase in exports almost entirely due to the increase in its competitiveness ability (Table 4.33). Thus, it can be said that the competitive level of Vietnam's export of high-tech products tends to increase in recent years. Table 4.34. Competitiveness in Vietnam's export of high-tech products in the period of 2002-2017 Code Increase/ decrease in exports (US $ million) Demand impact (million US $) Structural impact (million US $) Competitiveness (million US $) 524 9,7 0,3 -0,3 9,7 541 151,1 17,5 5,8 127,7 712 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 716 1118,5 113,2 5,1 1000,2 718 10,5 0,2 0,0 10,4 751 2881,9 0,7 -0,5 2881,8 752 3561,9 30,8 -10,7 3541,8 759 585,4 527,8 -82,3 139,9 761 2141,7 97,5 -48,1 2092,3 764 51200,6 170,7 -28,1 51058,0 771 1209,6 73,1 22,4 1114,1 774 115,6 2,0 -0,2 113,9 776 9332,6 27,8 9,3 9295,6 778 1869,2 95,3 20,3 1753,5 792 391,3 5,9 -2,9 388,3 871 3077,1 0,2 0,9 3076,0 874 468,9 21,9 1,9 445,1 881 2492,9 28,3 -32,8 2497,4 Source: Author calculates from figures of the World Bank (2019) Thus, Vietnam's export growth of high-tech products during 2002-2017 has achieved important results. Major high-tech products with strong export growth in recent years include 764, 776,752, 871, 881 and 751. This shows that the export growth rate of high-tech products for these products is much higher than the average export growth rate of similar products in the world. 19 4.3. Factors affecting Vietnam's export of high-tech products Regression results using OLS, FEM and REM estimation methods with 648 observations are shown in Table 4.35. Table 4.36. The REM model of the impact of factors on the export value of high-tech products of Vietnam Independent variables Estimated REM Regression coefficient t-Test Intercept -51,915 -10,08*** Ln(PGDPit*PGDPjt) 0,418 1,49 Ln(IPRit*IPRjt) 1,973 1,73* LnERit 11,115 8,73*** LnINFit -0,612 -5,04*** LnDISijt -0,977 -3,65*** LnEDISijt 0,212 2,08** LnINSit -0,528 -0,39 FTAijt 0,453 2,96*** BORij 0,785 3,45*** Adjusted R square ( 2R ) 0,465 F-statistics (F) 507,6 Note: *, **, ***: Corresponds to significance level less than 10%, 5%, 1%; Values in parentheses ( ) is the z-test. Source: Summary of the author from Stata software From the results of the gravity model, there are 8 factors affecting Vietnam's exports of high-tech products, namely Vietnam's GDP and importing countries, intellectual property rights index of Vietnam and importing countries, exchange rates, inflation, geographical distance between Vietnam and the importing countries, economic gap between the two countries, dummy variables for borders and members of FTAs. The results of the analysis have shown the positive factors, the negative factors and the results also show that the trend of the factors is quite consistent with the expectations that the hypotheses have