Tóm tắt Luận văn Credit development for poor households in Thai Nguyen province

is is organized into 5 chapters: Chapter 1: Literature review Chapter 2: Rationale and practice of credit development for the poor households Chapter 3: Research Methodology Chapter 4: Current status of credit development for the poor household in Thai Nguyen province Chapter 5: Orientations and solutions for the poor household’s credit development in Thai Nguyen province Chapter 1 LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1. International research literatures There have been quite a few researchS about the relationship between credit for farmer households in general and poor households in specific. In Related to the research content of the thesis, there are some typical projects of: Aghion and Morduch (2005), Khandker (2005), Morris and Barnes (2005), Jainaba and Partner (2005), Yasmine (2008),Westover (2008), Takahashi and Partner (2010), Li and Partner (2011),Al-Mamun and Partner (2015), Ganle and Partner (2015), etc. 1.2. National researches literatures 5 Poverty reduction and the credit role for the poor households, which have been researched by lots of researchers. Among published researches,those typical one relate to the research content of the thesis, named: Pham Bao Duong, Izumida (2002), Barslund, Tarp (2008), Nguyen Thi Quyen (2005), Phan Dinh Khoi et al (2013), Nguyen Vietnam Cuong, Marrit van den Berg (2014), Chen Thi Thanh Tu et al (2015), Pham Bao Duong, Pham Tien Thanh (2015), Chen Lan Phuong (2016), Ocean Decision Win (2016), Ngo Manh Main (2018), etc. 1.3. General results assessment related to the thesis The abroad researches mainly using quantitative methods to analyze the factors affecting credit access ability of the farmers, and the poor households. Moreover, a number of authors also studied the factors that affect the amount of capital that they can loan. Besides, a number of studies have evaluated the impact of credit on their income and expenditure. Researches in Vietnam, which is mentioned by authors, besides using descriptive statistic methods, comparisonS statistic to analyze and assess, the authors also used the linear regression model as Probit, Tobit, Heckman, Logic, DID, PSM to analyse the factors affecting credit access, analyze the factors that affect the amount of the loan and assess the impact of the credit on household living standards. 1.4. The issues need to continue researching Through an overview research of works in Vietnam and abroad, as can see that the studies mentioned different aspects of credit, the farmers and the poor households. However, the studies are 6 still identifiable individuals. There are no studies, studying the contents of the poor household's credit development. Especially in Thai Nguyen province, There is no research using Probit linear regression model to analyze the credit accessibility of the poor household, Tobit model analyzing capital loans, and PSM model to assess the impact of the credit on the poor household's living standards. This is the opportunity for the author to continue studying. Chapter 2 THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL BASIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OFFOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS 2.1. Theoretical basis of credit development for the poor households 2.1.1. Some basic concepts 2.1.1.1. Concepts of poverty, poor households 2.1.1.2. Concepts of credit 2.1.1.3. Concept of credit for the poor households 2.1.1.4. Concepts of development. 2.1.1.5. The concept of credit development for poor households The credit development for the poor households is an increase in scale of credit loans, with credit quality, increasingly better. The types of credit increasingly diverse, institutional organizations operate Increasingly relevant and the poor households are easier in reaching credit capital sources. 2.1.2. Characteristics of credit development for the poor households 2.1.3. The role of credit development for the poor households 2.1.4. Content of research on credit development for the poor households 2.1.4.1. Research on credit growth for the poor households 7 Credit growth for the poor households are activities in increasing credit of the credit institution for the poor, in order to satisfy more the capital needed for their production purpose, business, job opportunities, solving partly necessities of housing, clean water, energy for lightning, and education.. 2.1.4.2. Research on credit quality for the poor household Credit quality for the poor household is a general economic targets, reflecting the results of credit activity of credit institutions and meet the needs of debtors in line with the socio-economic development of the country, while ensuring the existence and development of the CI. 2.1.4.3. Research on the type of credit for the poor households The type of credit for the poor household must match the debtors ability. That is possible to develop some type of credit for the poor households, based on the following criteria: in term of the time, in terms of purposes, in terms of Organizations. 2.1.4.4. Research on the operation organisation of credit for the poor households Operations organization for the poor households is the most important factor in allocation and effective using Credit resources for the poor households. With standards in the Proper credit operation, that will create a favorable environment for the Poor households, they are easier to access credit capital. 2.1.4.5. Research on access to the poor households' credit Credit access is the meeting between a side having demand on using credit capital- the poor households, and the other side has ability in meeting the requirement– the Credit Institution. 8 2.1.5. State management on the credit development for the poor households 2.1.6. Factors affecting the credit development for the poor households 2.2. Practical basis of credit development for the poor households 2.2.1. Experiences on credit development for the poor household in worldwide Thesis focuses on researching experience of some countries, are successful in credit development for the poor households, named: Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Indonesia. 2.2.2. Experience on credit development for the poor households in Vietnam Thesis focuses on researching credit development experience for the poor households from VBSP, PCF, MFIs (TYM). 2.2.3. Lessons learned for Thai Nguyen province on the credit development for the poor households Chapter 3 RESEARCH METHODS 3.1. Research questions - The situation of development of credit for the poors in Thai Nguyen province in past years? - The impact of credit on living standard of poor houshold in Thai Nguyen? - The factors that effect the development of credit for poor individuals in Thai Nguyen - The method that need to enhance the development of credit for poor household in Thai Nguyen? 3.2. Approach method and analytical framework 3.3. Selecting study area 9 3.3.1. Method to select study area - Selecting districts for the study: districts have been choosen are Vo Nhai, Phu Luong, and Phu Binh - Selecting communes for the study: in this study the communes have been choosen depend on nature charateristcs and the portion of poor household. 3.3.2. Data collecting methods 3.3.2.1. Collecting secondary data 3.3.2.2. Collecting primary data Number of household for collecting data is calculated by Slovin formula. After calculating, the study has the number of sample is n = 391. In this study the number of sample is 400. 3.4. Method for collecting and analyzing data 3.4.1. Data collecting method 3.4.2. Data analyzing method 3.4.2.1. Descriptive statistic method 3.4.2.2. Comperative method 3.4.2.3. Estimation method In this study Probit model has been choosen to analyze the capability to aproach the oficial credit source of poor household, Tobit model has been used to analyze the amount of the loan for poor household, PSM model has been used to analyze the impact of credit to living standard of poor household 3.5. System of research targets Chapter 4 SITUATION OF DEVELOPMENT OF CREDIT FOR POOR HOUSEHOLD IN THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE 10 4.1. Natural and social - economical characterstics of Thai Nguyen province 4.2. Organizing credit for poor household in Thai Nguyen province 4.3. Situation of porverty and poverty reduction policies in Thai Nguyen province 4.4 Development of credit for poor household in Thai Nguyen province 4.4.1. Growth of credit for poor household In past years, the credit organizations in Thai Nguyen province had oustanding growth in amount of loan, amount of debt, and number of houshold having debt. In the period of 2010-2018, the average growth of loan amount of VBSP is 8.06%, Microfinance Institutions (TYM) is 20.17%, People Credit Fund is 5.1%. Growth rate of debt amount of VBSP is 5.86 and the number of households having debt is 35,047, TYM is 12.84% and 2,978 housholds having debt, People Credit Fund is 9.70% and 265 households having debt. 4.4.2. Quality of credit for poor household For Credit organizations: in the period of 2010-2018, the quality of credit organizations has been steadily improved, the number of overdue debt and charged-off debt is always under 1% of total debt, particaly for TYM percent of paid debt is 100%. Besides, debt collection coefficient, cycle of money and rate of interest collection of credit organizations are steadily growing year by year. The portion of accupied debt is always equal 0, this shows the high security in credit activity of credit organizations. For poor households: aproaching to credit brings to poor household many opotunities in place work, and help to change awareness of the poor, and help them to appy science applycation to enhance productivity, income and living standard. 11 4.4.3. Types of credit for poor household Credit organizations are applying mortgage credit for poor house hold through local social and political organizations for short- term, mid-term and long-term loan concentrate on agriculture non- agriculture activities and other activities. 4.4.4. Credit organizations and institutions for poor household credit Each credit organization has different regulation of interest rate, loan maturity, date, lending methods, repayment modes, debt repayment rescheduling and loan rescheduling depend on their characterstics. * Capability to aproach credit of poor household In total 400 households have been inquired, 272 households have credit loans, 128 households do not have credit loan (in 3 years, 2015-2017). In which, Phu Luong district has highest portion with 90% and Phu Binh district has lowest portion with 57.14% (Table 4.4). Table 4.4: Capability to aproach credit loan of poor household Criteria Districts Total Vo Nhai Phu Luong Phu Binh Observations (%) Total number of surveyed households 154 120 126 400 100 - Households borrow 92 108 72 272 68 - Households do not borrow 62 12 54 128 32 Source: Compiled from survey data in 2017 * Capability to aproach credit of poor household In total 400 households investigated, 77 households have never had loan, 323 household have had loan, in which 229 households often have loan. Rate of credit aproaching show the loans effectieness of these families (Table 4.9) 12 Table 4.9: Rate of credite aproaching of poor households Criteria Districts Total Vo Nhai Phu Luong Phu Binh Observations (%) Total number of surveyed households 154 120 126 400 100 1. Households have never borrowed 45 11 21 77 19.25 2. Households have borrowed 109 109 105 323 80.75 - Households often borrow 75 83 71 229 57.25 Source: Compiled from survey data in 2017 * Rate of credit for poor household satisfied Average demand for loan from VBSP is 45.8 million VND, while amount of money lent is 37.5 million VND. Average demand for loan from People Credit Fund is 32.5 million VND and amount of money lent is 23.9 million VND. Average demand for loan from TYN is 20 million VND and amount of money lent is 15.5 million VND. Such, the capability to satisfy the demand of loan for poor household is 77.47% and 22,53% is not satisfied. * Method to aproach credit for poor household There are 2 methods to aproach credit for poorhousehold direct aproaching and indirect aproaching. First, poor families can aproach credit directly through credit organization and do not need intermediate step, there are 34 per 304 loans. Second, most of poor household aproach credit through local social and political organizations, acount for 89.14% of total loans (Table 4.11). 13 Table 4.11: Method to aproach credit of poor household Criteria No. of Borrowings Total Vo Nhai Phu Luong Phu Binh Observations (%) Total amount of loan 92 116 96 304 100 - Direct aproaching 0 9 24 33 10.86 - Indirect aproaching 92 107 72 271 89.14 Source: Compiled from survey data in 2017 * Experimental analysis results Table 4.12: Estimated Results using Probit models Variables crd Accessibility to Credit Coef t-stat Marginal Effect Gender Gender -0,069 -0,47 -0,024 Age Age 0,153*** 2,71 0,053*** Age Square Agesq -0,002** -2,45 -0,001** Ethnicity Ethnic 0,394** 2,35 0,136** Education edu2 0,261* 1,66 0,090* Household Size Hhsize -0,010 -0,10 -0,003 Male Member Maleno -0,130 -1,36 -0,045 Labor-force Ratio Labor 1,638** 2,36 0,564** Main Job mainjob1 0,535*** 2,75 0,184*** Social Capital Socap -0,189 -0,91 -0,065 Non-productive Asset asset1 0,018*** 5,29 0,006*** Productive Asset asset2 -0,012 -1,26 -0,004 Residential Land Landha -3,815** -2,03 -1,313** Agricultural Land land234ha 0,087 0,30 0,030 Constant Cons -4,590*** -3,83 Percentage of Prediction orrectness 71,50% Wald chi2(14) (Prob > chi2) 59.79 (0.00)_ Obs 400 Note: *, ** and ***: Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively Table 4.13: Estimated Results using Tobit models Variables crd Amount Granted Coef t-stat Marginal Effect Gender gender -0,338 -0,11 -0,265 Age Age 3,710*** 2,91 2,906*** Age Square Agesq -0,041*** -2,67 -0,032*** Ethnicity ethnic 8,036** 2,42 6,294** 14 Education edu2 3,248 1,01 2,544 Household Size hhsize 3,273* 1,82 2,563* Male Member maleno -2,145 -1,12 -1,680 Labor-force Ratio Labor 22,085 1,56 17,298 Main Job mainjob1 12,884*** 2,80 10,091*** Social Capital Socap -2,442 -0,53 -1,913 Non-productive Asset asset1 0,344*** 6,18 0,269*** Productive Asset asset2 -0,235 -1,20 -0,184 Residential Land landha -111,460*** -2,66 -87,298*** Agricultural Land land234ha 6,479 1,07 5,075 Constant Cons -104,544*** -3,94 Sigma 27,073*** 22,56 F( 14, 386) (Prob > F) 5.85 (0.00) Obs 400 Note: *, ** and ***: Significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively Table 4.12 shows the estimated results from Probit and Tobit model. Percentage of Correctness Prediction is 71.5 per cent, which means that the explanatory variables in Probit model explain the access to formal credit quite well. Table 4.12,4.13 shows that such variables as age, education, Kinh ethnicity, labor-force ratio, main job, value of non-productive assets and area of residential land have statistically significant effect on households’ accessibility to formal credit and/or amount granted. The remaining variables, including gender, household size, number of male and working-age members, social capital, value of productive assets, area of agricultural land have insignificant effect on households’ accessibility to formal credit and/or amount granted. 4.5. Factors that impact development of poor households credit in Thai Nguyen province 4.5.1. Factors from poor households 4.5.2. Factors from credit organizations 4.5.3. Other factors 15 4.6. Impact of Formal Credit on Living Standard of Poor Households in Thai Nguyen Province Table 4.15 shows that formal credit has no significant impact on revenue from agricultural activities (cultivation and livestock-rearing). The results are consistent among matching techniques (Nearest- Neighbor, Kernel and Radius). As for self-employment, Table 6 reveals that formal credit borrowers have significantly higher revenue than their non-borrowing counterparts by 1.642 and 1.576 million VND using Radius with caliper = 0.05 and Kernel matching, respectively. Table 4.15: Impact Evaluation of Formal Credit on Revenue Outcome Cultivation Livestock Self-employment ATT t-stat ATT t-stat ATT t-stat NNM (n=1) 3,381 1,52 0,720 0,32 0,311 0,22 Radius (Cal=0.01) 2,557 1,44 0,378 0,17 1,083 0,89 Radius (Cal=0.05) 2,047 1,21 0,573 0,42 1,642* 1,90 Kernel 2,095 1,39 0,462 0,29 1,576* 1,77 Note: *, ** and ***: Significant at 10% and 5%, respectively Nearest-Neighbor (NN) matching with n = 1 As for the impact of formal credit on expenditures, Table 4.16 indicates that formal credit has no significant impact on the poor households’ expenditure for food consumption. The reason is that most of the poor locate in the rural area, where food can be self- sufficient, hence they may not use credit for food consumption. The results find that formal credit borrowers have higher expenditure for necessarynon-food items than the non-borrowers, which indicate that borrowers spend more on the items that they cannot produce by themselves, such as soap, detergent, etc.. 16 Table 4.16: Impact Evaluation of Formal Credit on Expenditure Outcome Food Necessities ATT t-stat ATT t-stat NNM (n=1) 0,170 0,85 0,100** 2,07 Radius (Cal=0.01) 0,086 0,61 0,090** 2,07 Radius (Cal=0.05) 0,035 0,28 0,065* 1,79 Kernel 0,033 0,26 0,067* 1,72 Note: *, ** and ***: Significant at 10% and 5%, respectively Nearest-Neighbor (NN) matching with n = 1 Table 4.17 shows no impact of formal credit on the expenditure for non-productive assets but positive impact on productive assets. It implies the poor truly use their credit for investment purpose, which may benefit them in a longer term and sustainably rather than for purchasing assets which only serve short-term welfare. Table 4.17: Impact Evaluation of Formal Credit on Durable Assets Outcome Durable Assets Non-productive Productive ATT t-stat ATT t-stat ATT t-stat NNM (n=1) 0,578 1,21 -0,024 -0,15 0,602* 1,83 Radius (Cal=0.01) 0,548 1,07 -0,035 -0,24 0,583* 1,80 Radius (Cal=0.05) 0,39 1,05 -0,052 -0,43 0,441* 1,82 Kernel 0,412 1,31 -0,051 -0,46 0,462* 1,68 Note: *, ** and ***: Significant at 10% and 5%, respectively Nearest-Neighbor (NN) matching with n = 1 4.7. General assessment of credit development for poor households in Thai Nguyen province 4.7.1. Achievements in credit development for poor households First, credit deelopmet for poor household: credit organizations had outstanding deelopment through expanding amount of credit for poor household, and number of poor families aproached to credit. 17 Second, quality of poor household credit: portion of overdue debt, off-charged debt in total debt in resent years are always under 1%, which showed the high security of poor household credit. Aproaching to credit give poor families more chance to have in place jobs and change the awareness of poor household. Third, types of poor household credit: credit organizations have sucessfully applied traditional credit types are short-term, mid- term anf long-term. In which, credit organization not only concentrate on loans for agrculture activities. Forth, institutions and organizing credit for poor household: policies for poor household credit have been comprehensive, consistent and synchronized deploied. These policies give chance for poor household to aproach to credit. Fifth, credit aproaching for poor household: there are 272/400 families aproached to credit with 304 loans from official credit organizations. Credit organization has adjust to increase the amount of loan to facilitate poor household to expand their production or change production models, raise livestock or expand other activities. 4.7.2. Restrictions on credit development for poor households Firstly, credit growth for poor households: rate of credit growth and number of credit growth of poor households of credit institutions are low and unstable. The number of credit institutions involved in lending to poor households is still small. The operational network of a number of formal credit institutions is still limited and unevenly distributed. 18 Secondly, in terms of credit quality for poor households: Overdue and frozen debts of some credit institutions have decreased over the years but still exist. Some households use the loan for the wrong purpose. Thirdly, on the types of credit for poor households: The variety of credit types for poor households of credit institutions in Thai Nguyen province is still very limited to term loans and little use of other forms of credit has partly limited the credit activity diversity of credit institutions. Fourthly, on the institution and organizing of credit operations for poor households: The mechanism for managing interest rates is still rigid, the mode of lending, the level of loans, and the term of loans are not really flexible. Fifthly, access to credit of poor households: Access to credit information, market information of poor households in many regions still faces many difficulties. As a result, a large proportion of poor households have demand for loans but lack of information has not been able to access credit capital. 4.7.3. The cause of the limitations in developing credit for poor households The amount of gorvernment capital investment in credit programs for poor households has not met actual needs. Capital sources of credit institutions are limited, capital mobilization from organizations and individuals still faces many difficulties. Credit officers of credit institutions are still thin. 19 The operational quality of the savings and loan groups, the loan group has not really met the requirements set out. Banking technology as well as telecommunication network in remote areas has not developed. The professional level and awareness of the poor is limited so the use of capital is not effective. The coordination between credit institutions and social and political organizations and programs in poverty reduction is still very limited. Infrastructure does not meet the needs of both credit institutions and poor households. Poor households do not have production and business experience. Chapter 5 ORIENTATIONS AND SOLUTIONS FOR CREDIT DEVELOPMENT FOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS IN THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE 5.1. Domestic and local context for credit development for poor households in Thai Nguyen province 5.2. Sustainable poverty reduction orientation in Thai Nguyen province 5.3. Viewpoints on credit development orientation for poor households in Thai Nguyen province 5.4. Credit development solution for poor households in Thai Nguyen province 5.4.1. Credit growth solution group for poor households - Diversify sources of capital, strengthen capital mobilization methods. - Continue to reform administrative procedures. 20 - Expanding the network, strengthening transaction offices and transaction points. - Increase medium and long-term loans. 5.4.2. Group of credit quality solutions for poor households - Enhancing training and improving the quality of the team. - Consolidating and improving the operational quality of the Savings and Credit Groups, loan groups. - Strengthen the inspection and control of the use of loan capital. - Strengthen debt management, limit overdue debts. 5.4.3. Group of solutions to diversify types of credit for poor households - Flexibility according to household economic status and suitable for the poor. - Enhancing lending through groups. - Providing credit according to the production chain - Providing credit to investment project owners and owners of production and business establishments that employ laborers and consume products made by the poor. 5.4.4. Group of institutional solutions to operate credit activities for poor households - Lending interest rate and form of guarantee when borrowing capital. - Loan term and loan amount. - Lending method. 5.4.5. Group of solutions to improve access to credit of poor households 21 - Improve the capacity and organization of production and business households. - Poor households should actively learn about lending and lending activities of credit institutions. - Households need to diversify jobs t