Direct investment to foreign of Vietnam enterprises to asean countries in the asean economic community (aec)

he years Choi, 2003, Liu and Nath (2013) 7 OPE + Openness of the economy, calculated as the proportion of imports and exports to GDP of the host country M.Mele et al. (2017), Buckley et al. (2007); Pradhan (2009); Sanflippo (2010); Kolstad and Wiig (2012), Anwar and Mughal, 2014 EXR - Ratio of price level of PPP conversion factor (GDP) is taken from data of the World Bank Scott (2002); Warner et al. (2004); Buckley et al. (2007) RES + Total natural resources rents index of World Bank Buckley et al. (2007); Pradhan (2009); Sanflippo (2010); Kolstad and Wiig (2012) CORTAX - Data of World Bank and tax authorities of ASEAN countries M.Mele et al. (2017), Buckley et al. (2007); Pradhan (2009); Sanflippo (2010); Kolstad and Wiig (2012) LAB - Index on the share of labor in GDP, taken from World Bank data M.Mele et al. (2017), Buckley et al. (2007); Pradhan, (2009); Sanflippo (2010); Kolstad and Wiig (2012), OECD (2012) PORISK - Average index from a number of other indicators from sources of Economist Intelligence Unit, the World Economic Forum, and the Political Risk Services (theglobaleconomy.com. ) Ietto-Gillies (2005) ATIGA, ACIA, AEC + Dummy variable, for the countries participating in these Agreements, will have the value 1 from the time of joining, while at the previous times it will be valued at 0. The author proposed (Source: Self-created by the author, 2020) As for variable of infrastructure, because hard infrastructure index or LPI index has not been continuously updated from 1991 up to now, the author chooses to use the variable of soft infrastructure index on the ratio of internet use per capita as the basis for analyzing impact of infrastructure factors on the attraction of Vietnam enterprises' direct investment capital in ASEAN markets. Choi’s research, 2003 also showed that for every 10% increase in the number of internet users in a country, it will lead to a 2% increase in FDI attraction in the country. 2.2. Some issues about ASEAN Economic Community 2.2.1. Overview of ASEAN ASEAN Economic Community * AEC's targets: (1) A single market and production base; (2) A competitive economic sector; (3) Balanced economic development; (4) Integration into global economy. * The essence of AEC: AEC is essentially the goal of ASEAN countries through gradual realization of the four above-mentioned goals. 2.2.2. Investment Agreements in ASEAN - ASEAN Investment Guarantee Agreement (AIGA) and Framework Agreement on ASEAN Investment Area (AIA) - ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) 2.3. Investment situation of some Asian countries to ASEAN and suggestions for Vietnam From the practice of direct investment to ASEAN over the periods of Japan, Korea and Malaysia, it can be a suggestion for Vietnam to base on its specific conditions and circumstances in perfecting mechanisms, policy on telecom to ASEAN in the coming time. In addition to helping consolidate Vietnam's political role and economic status in the region and the world, and promoting process of deepening international economic integration, this investment activity also helps Vietnam enterprises to penetrate deeper into the world market, seeking better investment opportunities in ASEAN. 8 CHAPTER 3: ANALYSIS OF CURRENT STATUS OF DIRECT INVESTMENT TO ASEAN OF VIET NAM ENTERPRISES 3.1. Analysis of current status of direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises 3.1.1. Per investment location Table 3.1. Direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises in the period 1991-2019 No. Countries Project Registered investment capital Average scope of each project (USD/project) Quantity Proportion (%) Amount (USD) Proporti on (%) 1 Laos 290 36,66 5,124,424,886 45,65 17,549,400 2 Cambodia 214 27,05 3,074,403,356 27,39 14,366,371 3 Myanmar 106 13,40 1,466,384,054 13,06 13,833,812 4 Malaysia 22 2,78 1,169,191,705 10,42 53,145,078 5 Singapore 111 14,03 295,415,083 2,63 2,661,397 6 Indonesia 17 2,15 56,020,416 0,50 3,295,319 7 Thailand 22 2,78 30,058,650 0,27 1,366,302 8 Philippines 7 0,88 6,484,780 0,06 926,397 9 Bruney 2 0,25 3,650,000 0,03 1,825,000 Total 791 100 11,226,032,930 100 14,182,304 (Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency-Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019) Figure 3.1. Direct investments of Vietnamese enterprises to ASEAN by investment location (Period 1991-2019) Unit: USD (Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency – Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019) Table 3.2. Direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises according to valid status of investment project in the 1991-2019 period Valid status of the project Number of project Registered investment capital Quantity Proportion (%) Amount (USD) Proportion (%) Still valid 622 78,31 10,177,301,486 90,66 Expired 169 21,37 1,048,731,444 9,34 Total 791 100 11,226,032,930 100 Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency – Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019 3.1.2. Per investment period 5,124,424,88 6 3,074,403,35 6 1,466,384,05 4 1,169,191,70 5 295,415,08356,020,41630,058,6506,484,7803,650,000 9 Table 3.3. Direct investment toASEAN of Vietnam enterprises by investment period 1991-2019 Period Project Registered investment capital Average capital size per project (USD/project) Quantity Proportion (%) Amount (USD) Proportion (%) 1991-1998 7 0,88 3,664,811 0,03 523,544 1999-2005 72 9,10 2,047,879,417 18,24 28,442,770 2006–2015 465 58,79 7,653,835,239 68,18 16,459,861 2016-2019 247 31,23 1,520,653,463 13,55 6,156,492 Total 791 100 11,226,032,930 100 14,192,203 Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency – Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019 Table 3.4. Direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises by investment sector and investment period 1991-2019 Period Investment sector Numbe r of project Registered capital (USD) Propo rtion (%) 1991-1998 Manufacturing and processing industry 1 306,811 8,37 Other services 1 98,000 2,67 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 1 1,000,000 27,29 Transportation and warehouse 3 760,000 20,74 Construction 1 1,500,000 40,93 Total 7 3,664,811 100 1999-2005 Wholesale and retail; Repair of automobiles, scooters, motorbikes and other motor vehicles 9 1,685,331 0,08 Manufacturing and processing industry 29 20,152,561 0,98 Other services 2 407,647 0,02 Professional activities, science and technology 7 3,657,756 0,18 Administrative activities and support services 1 100,000 0,00 Mining 9 1,633,457,529 79,76 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 7 110,693,902 5,41 Producing and distributing electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air-conditioning 1 273,111,000 13,34 Information and communication 1 29,500 0,00 Construction 6 4,584,191 0,22 Total 72 2,047,879,417 100 2006-2015 Wholesale and retail; Repair of automobiles, scooters, motorbikes and other motor vehicles 79 87,120,237 1,14 Manufacturing and processing industry 59 234,156,840 3,06 Water supply, waste management and treatment activities, wastewater 2 7,920,000 0,10 Other services 15 9,718,912 0,13 Accommodation and food services 11 105,211,448 1,37 Education and training 3 1,846,700 0,02 Professional activities, science and technology 21 217,258,957 2,84 Administrative activities and support services 14 6,048,129 0,08 Real estate business 12 369,958,138 4,83 Financial operations, banking and insurance 18 617,754,489 8,07 Mining 73 723,929,771 9,46 Arts, entertainment and entertainment 1 1,000,000,000 13,07 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 88 2,776,015,792 36,27 Producing and distributing electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air-conditioning 6 1,142,891,587 14,93 Information and communication 21 246,537,594 3,22 Transportation and warehouse 18 52,668,000 0,69 Construction 21 40,828,230 0,53 Health and social assistance activities 3 13,970,415 0,18 Total 465 7,653,835,239 100 2016 - 2019 Wholesale and retail; Repair of automobiles, scooters, motorbikes and other motor vehicles 65 77,893,751 5,12 Manufacturing and processing industry 22 71,216,925 4,68 10 Period Investment sector Numbe r of project Registered capital (USD) Propo rtion (%) Water supply, waste management and treatment activities, wastewater 2 551,000 0,04 Other services 4 28,389,232 1,87 Accommodation and food services 2 469,019 0,03 Education and training 1 135,000 0,01 Professional activities, science and technology 26 6,415,077 0,42 Administrative activities and support services 8 1,503,916 0,10 Real estate business 2 5,770,000 0,38 Financial operations, banking and insurance 5 167,719,999 11,03 Mining 8 50,085,735 3,29 Arts, entertainment and entertainment 1 82,000 0,01 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 11 134,960,756 8,88 Producing and distributing electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air-conditioning 2 70,545,000 4,64 Information and communication 26 877,266,795 57,69 Transportation and warehouse 10 7,880,000 0,52 Construction 49 17,749,258 1,17 Health and social assistance activities 3 2,020,000 0,13 Total 247 1,520,653,463 100 Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency – Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019 Table 3.5. Direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises by investment sector in period 1991-2019 No. Investment sector No. of project Registered capital (USD) Proportion (%) Average capital size per project (USD/project) 1 Wholesale and retail; Repair of automobiles, scooters, motorbikes and other motor vehicles 153 166,699,319 1,48 1,089,538 2 Manufacturing and processing industry 111 325,833,137 2,90 2,935,434 3 Water supply, waste management and treatment activities, wastewater 4 8,471,000 0,08 2,117,750 4 Other services 22 38,613,791 0,34 1,755,172 5 Accommodation and food services 13 105,680,467 0,94 8,129,267 6 Education and training 4 1,981,700 0,02 495,425 7 Professional activities, science and technology 54 227,331,790 2,03 4,209,848 8 Administrative activities and support services 23 7,652,045 0,07 332,698 9 Real estate business 14 375,728,138 3,35 26,837,724 10 Financial operations, banking and insurance 23 785,474,488 7,00 34,151,065 11 Mining 90 2,407,473,035 21.45 26,749,700 12 Arts, entertainment and entertainment 2 1,000,082,000 8,91 500,041,000 13 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 107 3,022,670,450 26,93 28,249,257 14 Producing and distributing electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air-conditioning 9 1,486,547,587 13,24 165,171,954 15 Information and communication 48 1,123,833,889 10,01 23.413.206 16 Transportation and warehouse 31 61,308,000 0,55 1,977,677 17 Construction 77 64,661,679 0,58 839,762 18 Health and social assistance activities 6 15,990,415 0,14 2,665,069 Total 791 11,226,032,930 100 14,192,203 Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency- Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019 3.1.4. According to investment form and under ownership of parent company in Vietnam * Per investment form 11 Table 3.6 Direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises under investment form in the period 1991-2019 Investment form No. of project % ratio of project Registered investment capital (USD) % ratio of registered investment capital 100% Vietnamese capital 584 73,90 8,116,291,904 72,299 Venture 1 23,20 150,000 17.509 Business cooperation contract (BCC) overseas 13 1,64 1,113,676,819 9,920 Buy shares 184 0,63 1,965,556,707 0.171 Repurchase 5 0,50 19,147,500 0.100 Partnerships 4 0,13 11,210,000 0.001 Total 791 100 11,226,032,930 100 Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency – Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019 * Under ownership form of the parent company in Vietnam Table 3.7. Direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises in the form of a parent company in Vietnam for the period 1991-2019 Investment form Registered investment capital (USD) Proportion % Private 37,446,157 0,33 Private enterprise 5,920,034,786 52,73 State-owned enterprises 5,262,348,928 46,88 Enterprises with foreign elements 6.203.060 0,06 Total 11,226,032,930 100 Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency – Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019 3.2. Assessment of direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises 3.2.1. Achieved result The first, direct investment projects to ASEAN have brought foreign currency revenue to the country, bringing social and economic benefits, contributing to economic development of Vietnam. The second, direct investment projects to ASEAN help Vietnam strengthen international economic cooperation, ensure security and defense. The third, direct investment activities to ASEAN are increasingly diversified. The fourth, direct investment to ASEAN helps Vietnamese enterprises to participate more strongly in the global labor distribution chain. The fifth, direct investment projects to ASEAN have contributed to creating international enterprises and groups that pioneered investment activities to ASEAN, able to compete in regional and global markets and enhancing Vietnam's position in international market. The sixth, direct investment activities to ASEAN have been helping Vietnam expand the market for products and avoid trade barriers of host countries. The seventh, direct investment activities to ASEAN also help Vietnamese enterprises have more opportunities to access science and technology. 3.2.2. Some limitations and reasons * Some limitations The first, some investment projects have not met committed schedule, number of investment projects mainly focus on a number of familiar markets. The second, implemented capital ratio and business results of direct investment projects to ASEAN are still low, and investment efficiency is not high. The third, form of investment to ASEAN is still limited. The fourth, system of chain investment forms is too low * Reason of the limitations  For state of Vietnam The first, Vietnam has not yet developed an investment strategy to ASEAN in both medium and long term. 12 The second, limits in investment support policy mechanism. The third, the promotion of direct investment to ASEAN has not been effectively implemented. The fourth, limits in the management of direct investment to ASEAN of Vietnam enterprises.  For Vietnam enterprises The first, the capacity of Vietnam enterprises to invest in ASEAN is still weak. The second, there is a lack of information about investment market, management skills and outdated technology. The third, there is a lack of close cooperation between enterprises and authorities in the process of implementing foreign investment. The forth, a number of Vietnam enterprises, when investing in ASEAN, did not comply with the laws of the host country. The fifth, the cooperation among Vietnam investors is weak The sixth, a lack of investment strategies to ASEAN in Vietnam enterprises to take advantage of the opportunities that AEC offers. CHAPTER 4. IMPACT FACTORS TO DIRECT INVESTMENT TO ASEAN OF VIETNAM ENTERPRISE IN THE CONTEXT OF AEC 4.1. The model of impact The author has proposed two models of impact, in which the first model comes from factors on the investor's side (creating a boost factor for investment activities) and the second model approaches the investment under the perspective of host country (creating an attraction factor to Vietnam enterprise's investment motives). * Model 1: OFDIVN= f(LNGDP, INFR, OPE, EXR, RES, CORTAX, LAB, PORISK, GR, AIA, ACIA, AEC) OFDIVN: Annual registered capital to each member country of ASEAN. * Model 2: OFDIVN= f(LNGDP, INFR, OPE, EXR, RES, CORTAX, LAB, PORISK, GR, AIA, ACIA, AEC) OFDIVN: Annual registered capital to each member country of ASEAN. LNGDP: GDP per capita (for model 1 - model based on boost factor, data shall be taken from Vietnam, for model 2 - model based on attraction factor, average GDP data per capita shall be collected from host countries in ASEAN) INFR: Infrastructure index is calculated by the proportion of individuals using the internet in one year. OPE: Economy openess index in a year is calculated as the ratio of import-export to GDP of the host country EXR: Price index is converted per exchange rate for one year RES: Index of natural resource to GDP for one year. CORTAX: Tax rate for corporate income in one year LAB: Labor index calculated as the quantity of employees per GDP in one year PORISK: Index of political risk for one year ATIGA, ACIA, AEC: Dummy variables show the impact of trade and investment agreements in ASEAN upon Vietnam's FDI attraction to ASEAN. These indices will be valued at 1 when the agreement comes into force for each member country, the previous times will be valued at 0. 4.2. Analysis of impact factors on Vietnam enterprise's direct investment to ASEAN within AEC framework 4.2.1. Description of variables in the model 13 * Vietnam enterprise's direct investment to ASEAN (OFDIVN) Table 4.1. Vietnam enterprise's direct investment capital to ASEAN over the periods Investment periods Number of Projects Registered investment capital (mil USD) 1991 - 1998 8 3,7 1999 - 2005 72 2.047,9 2006 - 2019 711 9.209,2 (Source: Author's calculations based on data from Foreign Investment Agency - Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2019) * GDP per capita (LNGDP) (Unit price: USD/person) Figure 4.1.GDP per capita of ASEAN countries (Source: World Bank statistics over the years) * Index of Infrastructure (INFR) Table 4.2. Index of Internet usage in ASEAN countries Nations Year 1999 Year 2005 Year 2014 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Year 2018 Cambodia 0.03 0.32 14.00 22.33 32.40 50.00 40 Laos 0.04 0.85 14.26 18.20 21.87 35.00 - Brunei 7.67 36.47 68.77 71.20 90.00 95.60 - Indonesia 0.44 3.60 17.14 21.98 25.37 32,29 40 Myanmar 0.00 0.07 11.52 21.73 25.07 34.00 - Malaysia 12.31 48.63 63.67 71.06 78.79 80.14 81 Philippines 1.43 5.40 49.60 53.70 55.50 63.00 - Singapore 24.16 61.00 79.03 79.01 81.00 84.45 88 Thailand 2.43 15.03 34.89 39.32 47.50 52,9 56,8 Vietnam 0.13 12.74 41.00 43.50 46.50 67.00 70 (Source: Statistics of World Bank over the years) * Index of openness per economy in one year (OPE) Table 4.3. Openness per economy in the ASEAN countries Unit : % in GDP Nations Year 2000 Year 2005 Year 2010 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Year 2019 Cambodia 110.89 136.83 113.60 127.86 126.95 124.89 123.56 Laos 68.84 71.79 84.72 85.80 75.09 75.83 - Brunei 103.17 97.46 95.37 84.90 87.32 85.18 108.51 Indonesia 71.44 63.99 46.70 41.94 37.44 39.54 37.3 Myanmar 1.17 0.27 0.18 47.36 39.06 39.06 - Malaysia 220.41 203.85 157.94 133.55 128.64 135.92 123.09 Philippines 104.73 97.88 71.42 62.69 64.90 70.66 68.61 19930 20000 40000 60000 28291 138438472 57994512992989 57714 65942343 1993 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 14 Singapore 366.07 422.65 373.44 329.05 310.26 322.43 319.15 Thailand 121.30 137.85 127.25 125.90 121.66 121.66 110.3 Vietnam 111.42 130.71 152.22 178.77 184.69 200.31 210.4 (Sources: World Bank statistic data over years) * Price index is converted to exchange rate for one year (EXR) Figure 4.2. Price index per purchasing power parity (PPP) in ASEAN (Sources: World Bank statistic data over years) * Index of natural resources to GDP (RES) Table 4.4 Indicators of natural resource lease of ASEAN countries (Unit: %) Nations Year 2000 Year 2005 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Cambodia 2.46904 1.71983 1.74574 1.90250 1.90250 Laos 4.03002 7.18459 10.21555 9.46952 9.46952 Brunei 26.39209 29.70018 8.33601 9.18575 9.18575 Indonesia 8.76422 8.74675 2.59219 2.49632 2.49632 Myanmar 6.07340 10.20330 4.74102 4.94287 4.94287 Malaysia 9.80154 11.29549 4.43961 4.29616 4.29616 Philippines 0.51829 1.14493 1.79587 1.33035 1.33035 Singapore 0.00033 0.00031 0.00037 0.00046 0.00046 Thailand 1.22054 2.17427 1.17908 1.20553 1.20553 Vietnam 9.09127 10.93613 2.32984 2.30111 2.30111 (Source: World Bank statistic data over years)1 * Tax rate on corporate income for one year (CORTAX) Table 4.5 Corporate Income Tax Rate in ASEAN countries Nations Year 2001 Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2017 Brunei 30 27.5 25.5 23.5 18.5 Cambodia 20 20 20 20 20 Indonesia 30 30 28 25 25 Laos 20 20 35 35 24 Malaysia 28 26 25 25 24 Myanmar 30 30 30 35 25 Philippines 35 35 30 30 30 Singapore 25.5 18 18 17 17 Thailand 30 30 30 30 20 Vietnam 32 28 25 25 20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 0.330.31 0.57 0.41 0.29 0.480.41 0.71 0.41 0.33 0.350.350.360.31 0.29 0.340.36 0.61 0.370.35 Năm 2011 Năm 2017 15 ((Source: Collected data from ASEAN member countries)) * Labour Index (LAB) Table 4.6: Labor per GDP ratio of ASEAN countries Nations Year 2000 Year 2005 Year 2014 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Cambodia 0.00152 0.00108 0.00053 0.00050 0.00046 0.00042 Laos 0.00140 0.00099 0.00026 0.00024 0.00022 0.00021 Brunei 0.00003 0.00002 0.00001 0.00002 0.00002 0.00002 Indonesia 0.00060 0.00037 0.00014 0.00014 0.00013 0.00013 Myanmar 0.00251 0.00194 0.00038 0.00042 0.00040 0.00037 Malaysia 0.00010 0.00008 0.00004 0.00005 0.00005 0.00005 Philippines 0.00037 0.00033 0.00015 0.00015 0.00014 0.00014 Singapore 0.00002 0.00002 0.00001 0.00001 0.00001 0.00001 Thailand 0.00028 0.00020 0.00010 0.00010 0.00009 0.00009 Vietnam 0.00136 0.00082 0.00030 0.00029 0.00028 0.00026 (Source: Calculated from labour index and GDP of ASEAN countries, taken from World Bank data over the years.) * Index of political risk for one year (PORISK) Table 4.7. Index of ASEAN political stability and no violence and terrorism Nations Year 2000 Year 2005 Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2012 Year 2013 Year 2014 Year 2015 Year 2017 Year 2018 Thailand 0.46 -0.87 -1.27 -1.42 -1.22 -1.31 -0.91 -0.99 -0.76 -0.73 Singapore 1.14 1.1 6 1.35 1.18 1.37 1.38 1.19 1.5 1.39 1.51 Malaysia 0.09 0.56 0.11 -0.04 -0.01 0.05 0.27 0.14 0.16 0.24 Laos -0.58 -0.49 0.02 -0.16 0.03 0.07 0.5 0.53 0.43 0.42 Cambodia -0.78 -0.4 -0.3 -0.56 -0.1 -0.14 0.02 0.21 0.17 0.11 Philippines -1.39 -1.18 -1.78 -1.73 -1.19 -1.08 -0.71 -1.38 -1.24 -1.12 Myanmar -1.67 -0.9 -1.09 -1.29 -0.94 -1.14 -1.09 -0.8 -1.08 -1.31 Indonesia -2 -1.52 -1.06 -0.75 -0.59 -0.52 -0.42 -0.37 -0.51 -0.53 Brunei 1.3 1.21 1.13 1.39 0.91 1.07 1.26 1.15 1.19 1.2 Vietnam 0.41 0.48 0.16 0.27 0.27 0.25 -0.02 0.23 0.31 0.2 (Sources: World Bank statistic data over years) * Other variables In addition to above variables, consider how the division by two groups of countries: ASEAN-6 (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Brunei) and ASEAN-4 (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) have an impact to the investment orientation of enterprises, the author set criteria group of countries into dummy variables. The ASEAN-6 group of countries has the value 1 and the ASEAN-4 group of countries has the value 0. 4.2.2. Model estimation results and conclusions drawn from the model Results of model estimation * Model of measuring factors from the investor's side (boost factors) Table 4.8 Model estimated results of boost factors Variable OFDI OFDI OFDI 1 2 3 LNgdp 0.797 -0.788 0.313 (0.658) (0.547) (0.607) OPE -0.041 (0.203) EXR 14.21 13.90 (0.330) (0.342) 16 PORISK 1.408 1.78 1.539 (0.441) (0.324) (0.390) AIA 1.881 1.655 1.117 (0.147) (0.198) (0.331) ACIA 0.426 1.006 1.47 ** (0.667) (0.257) (0.049) AEC -0.408 -1.264** -1.39*** (0.441) (0.027) (0.012) GR -3.240*** -3.269*** -3.26*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Intercept factor -2.591 31.43 7.774 (0.947) (0.276 (0.591) Observation ratio 103 103 103 Identification ratio 0.5127 0.5042 0.54995 Mean vif 18.08 11.11 2.89 (Source: Data synthesized from research data with Stata software; Values in parentheses are p-value, *, **, *** regression coefficients are significant at 10%, 5% and 1%. In the above model, it can be seen that policy factors do not have much impact on decision-making of Vietnam enterprises in the ASEAN market. But the signing of agreements