Research on financial stress in Vietnam

domestic banks, Singapore also attracts many large international banks offering a wide range of banking and non-banking services. 1.4.1.2. Financial stress period Financial stress in Singapore occur firstly due to the effects of the global financial crisis. Much of the shock came to Singapore through the commercial sector and capital and financial flows to the real economy. The periods of 1998 and 2008 were the periods with the highest FSI, reflecting the 7 financial stress of Singapore 1.4.1.3. Effects of financial stress The spread of trade and finanial channels has affected real economy, reflected in Singapore's industrial production index (IPI). From March 2008 to February 2009, IPI for the entire manufacturing sector fell by 28%. The worst affected area was electricity, decreased by 40%, followed by chemistry (33%), and the textile and apparel industry also dropped by 24%. As industrial production decreases, businesses' confidence also decreases and investment decreases. According to Singapore's statistics agency, the indexes in the fourth quarter of 2008 dropped sharply: expectations of businesses decreased by 57%, labor by 28%, production by 52%, new orders by 39%. All these fluctuations caused real GDP growth to decline from 6.7% in the first quarter of 2008 to -4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The growth rate of investment capital decreased from 30% in the first quarter of 2008 to -10% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and -10.2% in the first quarter of 2009. The growth of public and private consumption also decreased to 0.9% and 0% in the fourth quarter of 2008. 1.4.1.4. Singapore’s solution * Solutions to maintain the stability of the financial system Firstly, in order to maintain the stability of financial institutions, MAS has strengthened the supervision of financial institutions through close monitoring of financial health, regularly discussed with management, auditors of financial institutions; for foreign financial institutions, often discuss with managers in the host country and auditors of the headquarters. Secondly, implement solutions that ensure the proper functioning of market functions. Thirdly, take measures to maintain the confidence of investors in Singapore as Singapore is an international financial center. Fourth, the policy of MAS is adjusted to maintain the medium-term orientation and ensure the stability of the Singapore dollar, especially in the period of financial stress. * Solutions to support economic growth The first is the USD5.1 billion job creation plan in which the government subsidizes employers by paying 12% of the first $ 2,500 of the monthly salary of each worker to avoid dismissing workers. The second policy measure to ensure the maintenance of credit flow for businesses is a special risk-sharing plan for bank loans. The third measure is to reduce income tax for businesses through reducing tax rates from 18% to 17%. The fourth is to increase the competitiveness of workers, the government will pay up to 90% of the cost of re-training workers. Fifthly, the government spends USD4.4 billion to improve infrastructure conditions on health, housing.... 1.4.2. China’s experience 1.4.2.1. China’s economic context Since China carried out economic reforms in early 1979, the Chinese economy has experienced incredible economic growth and has become the second largest economy in the 8 world. However, from 2011 up to now, the growth rate of this country has slowed down significantly and this situation is expected to continue in the future. 1.4.2.2. Financial stress periods Nguồn: Sun và Huang, 2016 Figure 1.12: China Financial Stress Index 1.4.2.3. Effects of financial stress China's export sector was severely affected by the global crisis and financial stress which occurred domestically when the demand of the world economy showed signs of decline. China's GDP growth dropped sharply from 14.2% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2008 and 9.2% in 2009. 1.4.2.4. China’s solutions * Solutions to maintain the stability of the financial system Firstly, China has made strong strides towards market-oriented financial system, including reforms such as restructuring the capital of the banking system, creating new capital markets, introducing sustainable legal structures mechanism, opening up financial markets following the accession to WTO and gradually reforming interest and exchange rate policies. Secondly, to break the vicious cycle of the RMB depreciation, capital outflows from China increased, in 2016, the Chinese government had to apply stricter capital controls and reserve requirements for RMB deposits from foreign credit institutions. Thirdly, for the securities sector, leading companies have been restructured, a plan to protect investors has been established. * Solutions to support economic growth Firstly, in order to avoid the economic downturn, the Chinese government has launched big bailouts to restore the economy's growth momentum. Secondly, to promote economic growth, from September to December 2008, interest rates were cut down 5 times, on November 26, 2008 it decreased of 108 basis points. Thirdly, the government has implemented tax incentives such as increasing VAT refunds for exports, reducing taxes for small businesses by reducing the tax rate from 6% to 3%, increasing the family allowances in monthly income from 5,000 CNY to 10,000 CNY. 1.4.3. Lessons for Vietnam 9 1.4.3.1 Lesson on preventing the risk of financial stress - Carefully opening the financial sector and effectively controlling capital flows - Ensuring the stability and soundness of the banking system. 1.4.3.2. Lessons on implementing solutions to minimize the impact of financial stress - Develop early warning system for financial sector tension. - Healthy development of financial markets, diversification of capital channels for the economy. - Improve the operational efficiency of the financial monitoring system, micro-safety supervision. - Implement measures to support businesses and households, minimize the impact of financial stress. CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 1 Chapter 1 has codified and generalized the theory of financial stress. The concept and characteristics of financial stress have been carefully considered in order to study the causes of financial stress, as well as the effects of financial stress on the economy. In chapter 1, the author also studies Singapore and China's experience in managing the financial stress, thereby drawing valuable lessons for Vietnam related to measures to prevent financial stress and regulatory measures to minimize the negative impact of financial stress on the economy. 10 CHAPTER 2: CURRENT SITUATION OF FINANCIAL STRESS IN VIETNAM IN THE PERIOD FROM 2005 TO 2017 2.1 Overview of Vietnam's financial sector 2.2 Situation of financial stress in Vietnam's financial sector from 2005 to 2017 2.2.1. Stress in monetary market The periods of increasing TED gap were in 2007 (TED gap was 4.77%), at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 (TED gap was 2.97%) and at the end of 2011 and beginning of the year 2012 (TED difference was 1.68%). 2.2.2. Stress in banking sector Figure 2.10: Deposit/GDP and loan/GDP during 2005-2017 Nguồn: Báo cáo tài chính các NHTM Figure 2.11: Bad debt ratio of banking sector during 2005-2017 Through observation of Figure 2.10 and Figure 2.11, it can be seen that the period 2008 - 2011 witnessed a strong fluctuation in the size of deposits and loans of the banking system, the quality of assets of the banking system also decreased significantly. The ratio of non-performing loans increased to over 3% in 2006 and the period from 2011 to 2014. 2.2.3. Stress in stock market During 2008s Due to the unstable macroeconomic situation, along with a series of bad and unfavorable information for the market, the Vietnam stock market has been under stress, increasing the level of uncertainty of investors, reducing the willingness to hold assets, the asset price continuously dropped, from the beginning of 2008 to the end of 2008, VNINDEX dropped by nearly 700 points, hundreds of thousands of billion dong of value of assets evaporated. By the end of 2007, the market capitalization of the HSX reached VND 333,529 billion and by the end of 2008 only VND 169,346 .000 .200 .400 .600 .800 1.000 1.200 .000% 20.000% 40.000% 60.000% 80.000% 100.000% 120.000% 2 0 0 5 Q 1 2 0 0 6 Q 3 2 0 0 8 Q 1 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 2 Q 3 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 1 5 Q 3 2 0 1 7 Q 1 Cho vay/Tiền gửi CV/GDP TG/GDP .00% .500% 1.00% 1.500% 2.00% 2.500% 3.00% 3.500% 4.00% 4.500% 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 Tỷ lệ nợ xấu 11 billion was left, despite a newly increased 53% of listed shares in that year. At the end of 2007, HNX capitalization reached VND 130,633 billion and in 2008, VND 50,400 billion remained. During 2011s 2011 was a difficult year for Vietnam's economy, the stock market was a barometer of the economy, also reflected this trend with the main and major downtrend. From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, VNINDEX dropped sharply by 27.46% to 350 points at the end of 2011, 62% of codes on both exchanges were below the par value. 2.2.4. Stress on foreign exchange market The negative impact of global crisis and domestic macroeconomic instability has caused the foreign exchange market and VND/USD exchange rate to be constantly fluctuated. Only in 2008, the SBV extended the exchange rate band 3 times, taking measures to control the foreign exchange market to mobilize foreign currencies on banks. However, the supply and demand of USD remained seriously imbalanced, the foreign exchange market became extremely stressful, the exchange rate of VND/ USD was most unstable when the exchange rate at the beginning of 2008 was around 15,000 to 16,000VND/USD, by the end of 2008 this figure nearly reached VND 19,500. In order to stabilize the foreign exchange market as well as the VND/USD exchange rate, in addition to monetary and administrative policy measures, the SBV had to use the foreign exchange reserve fund to intervene in the market, foreign exchange reserves showed signs of sharp and continuous decline from the end of 2008 to 2011, from 23.9 billion USD at the end of 2008 to 12.2 billion USD in the first quarter of 2011, equivalent to 1.5 months imports, lower than the 3-4-month safe threshold recommended by the IMF (IMF, 2000). 2.2.5. Measuring Vietnam's financial stress with the FSI 2.2.5.1. Criteria for selecting variables for Vietnam FSI to determine periods of financial stress The variables selected to construct a financial stress index for Vietnam should meet the following criteria: financial system coverage, ability to express stress in each component of the financial system, the availability of financial data, and the variables must be related to the real economy. 2.2.5.2. Develop financial stress index a. Selecting variables The financial stress index is designed to measure financial stress in Vietnam in the period of 2005-2017, including indicators reflecting the stress of four market sectors: money market, banking sector, stock market and foreign exchange market. 12 * Monetary market The author uses the difference between the interbank interest rate and the treasury bill interest rate for the 3-month term (TED_spread). Source: Author’s calculation from SBV data Figure 2.22: TED_spread in Vietnam monetary market during 2005-2017 * Banking sector The balance sheet data used in the study is the loan/deposit ratio at commercial banks. According to Sun and Huang (2016), the increase of this ratio reflects the stress and default risk of the banking sector. The graph shows that durring the period 2011-2012 the loan/deposit ratio was approximately 1, reflecting the stresses in the banking sector. This is also entirely consistent with developments in credit growth and deposit growth during these periods. Source: Author’s calculation from commercial banks’ balance sheet Figure 2.23: Loan/deposit ratio at some commercial banks of Vietnam during 2005-2017 * Stock market One of the common variables used to assess stock market risks is realized volatility. The volatility of VNINDEX (sd_vni) is the standard deviation of VNINDEX in each quarter. 4.773 2.969 1.676 -2.000 .000 2.000 4.000 6.000 2 0 0 5 Q 1 2 0 0 5 Q 3 2 0 0 6 Q 1 2 0 0 6 Q 3 2 0 0 7 Q 1 2 0 0 7 Q 3 2 0 0 8 Q 1 2 0 0 8 Q 3 2 0 0 9 Q 1 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 1 0 Q 1 2 0 1 0 Q 3 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 1 Q 3 2 0 1 2 Q 1 2 0 1 2 Q 3 2 0 1 3 Q 1 2 0 1 3 Q 3 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 1 4 Q 3 2 0 1 5 Q 1 2 0 1 5 Q 3 2 0 1 6 Q 1 2 0 1 6 Q 3 2 0 1 7 Q 1 2 0 1 7 Q 3 TED_spread 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 0 5 Q 1 2 0 0 5 Q 4 2 0 0 6 Q 3 2 0 0 7 Q 2 2 0 0 8 Q 1 2 0 0 8 Q 4 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 1 0 Q 2 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 1 Q 4 2 0 1 2 Q 3 2 0 1 3 Q 2 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 1 4 Q 4 2 0 1 5 Q 3 2 0 1 6 Q 2 2 0 1 7 Q 1 2 0 1 7 Q 4 Loan_Deposit 13 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Figure 2.24: The volatility of VNINDEX * Foreign exchange marrket To reflect stress in the foreign exchange market, the author used exchange rates and changes in foreign exchange reserves to calculate the EMP. According to Elekda and Selim (2009) EMP is determined as follows: In which, e (dEX) and RES (dFEX) are the quarterly percentage change of the nominal exchange rate between the local currency and the US dollar and foreign exchange reserves.  and  are the mean and the standard deviation of the two component determining EMP. Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả Figure 2.25: Exchange market pressure during 2005-2017 Figure 2.25 shows the EMP and the foreign exchange reserves are in the opposite relationship, and completely consistent with the developments in the foreign exchange market. During the period of 2008-2011, due to the great fluctuations from the world economy together with the instability of the internal economy of Vietnam, the forex market fluctuated sharply. The State Bank has repeatedly used foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the market, causing the size of foreign exchange reserves to decrease sharply and continuously from the end of 2008 to 2011. b. Constructing financial stress using equal variance weight According to Balakrishnan et al (2009 and 2011), variables are normalized according to the following formula: Standardized variables = ̅ .000 50.000 100.000 150.000 2 0 0 5 Q 1 2 0 0 5 Q 4 2 0 0 6 Q 3 2 0 0 7 Q 2 2 0 0 8 Q 1 2 0 0 8 Q 4 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 1 0 Q 2 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 1 Q 4 2 0 1 2 Q 3 2 0 1 3 Q 2 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 1 4 Q 4 2 0 1 5 Q 3 2 0 1 6 Q 2 2 0 1 7 Q 1 2 0 1 7 Q 4 sd_vni -5 0 5 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 7 EMP 14 Source: Author’s calculation Figure 2.26: Vietnam financial stress index during 2005-2017 According to Yiu, Ho and Jin (2010), the simplest method to determine the stress period is when the FSI is at its peak, while the relatively low FSI is when the financial sector is relatively stable. The graph shows that the time when the financial sector experienced the most stress was in the first quarter of 2011 and continued until the third quarter of 2012 to show signs of decline. Another way to identify periods of financial stress is to compare FSI with the long-term trendline. Source: Author’s calculation Figure 2.27: The long-term trendline of FSI and the deviation from the trendline After determining the trend line, the authors refer to the criteria of Balakrishnan et al. (2009 and 2011) and Cardarelli, Elekdag, and Lall (2008 and 2011) to determine the period of financial stress when FSI has a deviation from the trend from 1-1.5 times the standard deviation (of the trend). Thus, both the event method and the quantitative method comparing FSI with the above long-term trend line indicate that the period of 2011-2012 is the most obvious period of financial stress. 2.2.6. The causes of the stress on Vietnam's financial sector 2.2.6.1. External causes The sharp increase in capital inflows in the period before 2009 can be considered as a basic cause of financial sector stress in Vietnam. Spillover effects of the world financial crisis on Vietnam's economy 2.2.6.2. Internal causes -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 0 5 Q 1 2 0 0 5 Q 3 2 0 0 6 Q 1 2 0 0 6 Q 3 2 0 0 7 Q 1 2 0 0 7 Q 3 2 0 0 8 Q 1 2 0 0 8 Q 3 2 0 0 9 Q 1 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 1 0 Q 1 2 0 1 0 Q 3 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 1 Q 3 2 0 1 2 Q 1 2 0 1 2 Q 3 2 0 1 3 Q 1 2 0 1 3 Q 3 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 1 4 Q 3 2 0 1 5 Q 1 2 0 1 5 Q 3 2 0 1 6 Q 1 2 0 1 6 Q 3 2 0 1 7 Q 1 2 0 1 7 Q 3 FSI -0.6 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.4 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 0 5 Q 1 2 0 0 5 Q 4 2 0 0 6 Q 3 2 0 0 7 Q 2 2 0 0 8 Q 1 2 0 0 8 Q 4 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 1 0 Q 2 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 1 Q 4 2 0 1 2 Q 3 2 0 1 3 Q 2 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 1 4 Q 4 2 0 1 5 Q 3 2 0 1 6 Q 2 2 0 1 7 Q 1 2 0 1 7 Q 4 Cycle FSI Trend 1SD+trend 15 The structure of the financial system is still unreasonable The lack of flexibility in operating policies of regulatory agencies, the institutional framework and the safety regulations and legal provisions are not consistent with the fluctuations, especially before 2010, partly causing financial sector stress to occur and leading to negative effects on the real economy. The inspection and supervision capacity of the State Bank of the previous period still had some limitations No agency has yet implemented a comprehensive macro safety supervision of the entire financial system. 2.3 Impacts of financial stress on real economy 2.3.1. Impacts of financial stress on investment Source: General Statistics Office Figure 2.33: Growth rate of investment capital, investment/GDP ratio during the period of 2005-2017 Figure 2.33 shows that the movements in the growth rate of investment capital over the years are relatively consistent with the theory of the impact of financial sector stress on investment activities. When the financial sector experienced stress and instability, investment activities decreased sharply. In 2008, due to the impact of the global economic crisis, businesses felt uncertain about future prospects, the decline of aggregate demand made the financial situation of enterprises weakened, investment activities decreased. The growth rate of investment capital was below the trend line, only increasing by 15.91% compared to 2007. In 2011, 2012 and 2013, the growth rate of investment capital was still below the trend line, the ratio of capital investment over GDP decreases about 30% of GDP. .000% 10.000% 20.000% 30.000% 40.000% 50.000% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Tỷ lệ đầu tư/GDP Tốc độ tăng vốn đầu tư Linear (Tốc độ tăng vốn đầu tư) 16 Figure 2.34: The investment capital to GDP by economic sectors in the period of 2005-2017 Nguồn: Tổng cục thống kê Figure 2.35: Investment capital structure by economic sectors in the period of 2005-2017 The structure of investment capital/GDP shows that the ratio of investment capital to GDP peaked at 42.68% in 2007, in 2008 the scale of investment capital/GDP dropped sharply to below 40% and this strong downward trend continued in three years of 2011, 2012 and 2013, of which in 2013, the ratio of investment capital/GDP dropped to the lowest level at 30.54%. Source: CEIC Figure 2.37: Industrial production index Figure 2.37 shows the evolution of the industrial production index during 2005 - 2017. It can be seen that the time when the growth rate of industrial production index received negative value was December 2008 (-0,915 %), February 2010 (-1,028%), January 2012 (- 2,407%) and the lowest growth rate was February 2013 (-10.1%). These are also the times when Vietnam's financial sector witnessed stress in the stock market, monetary market, foreign exchange market and the banking sector. 2.3.2. Impact of financial sector stress on economic growth The development of credit growth in Vietnam is relatively consistent with the theory of the impact of financial stress. The period of 2007-2010 was a period of rapid credit .000% 20.000% 40.000% 60.000% 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 Vốn đầu tư/GDP Kinh tế Nhà nước Kinh tế ngoài nhà nước Khu vực có vốn đầu tư nước ngoài .000% 50.000% 100.000% 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 Khu vực có vốn đầu tư nước ngoài Kinh tế ngoài nhà nước Kinh tế Nhà nước -20 0 20 40 2 0 0 5 -0 1 2 0 0 5 -0 7 2 0 0 6 -0 1 2 0 0 6 -0 7 2 0 0 7 -0 1 2 0 0 7 -0 7 2 0 0 8 -0 1 2 0 0 8 -0 7 2 0 0 9 -0 1 2 0 0 9 -0 7 2 0 1 0 -0 1 2 0 1 0 -0 7 2 0 1 1 -0 1 2 0 1 1 -0 7 2 0 1 2 -0 1 2 0 1 2 -0 7 2 0 1 3 -0 1 2 0 1 3 -0 7 2 0 1 4 -0 1 2 0 1 4 -0 7 2 0 1 5 -0 1 2 0 1 5 -0 7 2 0 1 6 -0 1 2 0 1 6 -0 7 2 0 1 7 -0 1 2 0 1 7 -0 7 Mức tăng chỉ số sản xuất công nghiệp (%) 17 growth in Vietnam, with credit growth reaching over 30%, but in 2008, the credit growth dropped sharply from 49.79% ( 2007) to 27.6% (2008) and rebounded to 45.32% (2009). Since 2011, credit growth has shown signs of slowing down, especially in 2011 and 2012, credit / GDP growth decreased to -11.58% and -4.8%. Stress in the financial sector caused credit growth to decline, investment activities of enterprises tended to narrow, the risk of losing jobs, and income declines in the context of the slow economic recovery. The majority of households and individuals tighten their consumption. Private consumption has been continuously decreasing over a long period of time from the 2008 peak of 70.87% of GDP to the bottom of 64.5% of GDP in 2012. The reduced size of investment capital, and the inefficient use of investment capital is one of the causes affecting Vietnam's economic growth. 2.3.3. Assess the impact of financial sector stress on the real economy using the threshold regression vector model 2.3.3.1. Research model To assess the impact of financial sector stress on the real economy in Vietnam in the period of 2005-2017, the thesis uses the threshold vector auto regression model - TVAR used in Roye's studies. (2012), Li & St-Amant (2012), Ahma et al. (2014) 2.3.3.2. Selecting variables Based on theory and previous studies on variables when considering the impact of FSI on real economy, the author chooses the following variables in TVAR model: GDP, CPI, INT, FSI 2.3.3.3. Results Table 2.10: The estimation result of TVAR model to GDP with threshold variable is the financial sector stress index (FSI) Regime 1 Regime 2 FSI(-1) =0.3062018 Number of observations 42 obsservations (82,4%) 9 observations (17,6%) coefficient t p-value coefficient t p-value C 0.023236 2.544423 0.014800 0.100173 3.565756 0.000900 GDP(-1) 0.652164 4.962285 0.000000 -0.331978 -2.313395 0.025800 FSI(-1) -0.005913 -0.702597 0.486300 -0.130317 -4.726012 0.000000 CPI(-1) -0.076877 -1.160887 0.252400 -0.218805 -1.264406 0.213200 INT(-1) 0.000639 0.580002 0.565100 0.005917 1.415519 0.164500 Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả từ phần mềm thống kê 18 Table 2.10 shows the result of TVAR model with FSI as threshold variable. In the two regimes shown by the model, the impact of FSI on the real economy through the impact on GDP is sta