Tóm tắt Luận án Impacts of foreign direct investment on import and export in Vietnam

over the market of local enterprises. (2) Channel of technology transfer and R&D activity: First, channel of technology transfer from FDI enterprises: In addition to capital, FDI enterprises also bring about advanced manufacturing technology, skills and management competence, etc, to which the local enterprises can access through the channel of technology transfer. Second, R&D activity of FDI enterprises: This activity can have spreadingpositive technological impacts on local export enterprises, which contributes to the improvement of export capacity of these enterprises, increasing export turnover of the receiving country. (3) Channel of labor movement and knowledge transfer: First, local enterprises can access and receive knowledge transfer from FDI enterprises because there is labor movement from FDI enterprises to these enterprises. Second, labour movement does not happen one way from FDI enterprises to local ones, but it does reverse. A part of labor might work for FDI enterprises after having achieved great experiences. b. FDI’s impacts on import tunrover b1. Direct impact channels (1) FDI enterprises’ goods in replace of exported goods: Together with the appearance of FDI enterprises, the import of receiving country would decrease because previous imported goods can be replaced by those manufactured by FDI enterprises. This is FDI’s positive impact on import, helping in the reduction of import and improvement of balance of trade in the receiving country. (2) FDI enterprises’ import of machine, technology and manufacturing input: At the beginning, FDI enterprises, expecially business and manufacturing ones related to technology, usually have to import machine, technology, materials, even high quality human resource due to limited supply of the country. (3) FDI enterprises’ import of supporting industrial goods not produced by local market: In the early stage of attracting FDI, receiving countries, especially developing ones are normally uncapable of producing appropriate supporting industrial goods in response to FDI enterprises’ requirement. Therefore, FDI enterprises have to import these goods from their own home or another country. This results in an increase in import turnover of the receiving country. b2. Indirect impact channels (1) Spillover effect through reversed connection between FDI enterprises and local ones to increase manufacturing input supply capacity of local suppliers: Due to spreadingimpact of technology and knowledge transfer from FDI enterprises, manufacturing level of local enterprises can be improved, progressing to self-production of machine, input accessories, and even advancement of new technology that had to be imported beforehand. This impact of FDI would help in decreasing import value of the receiving country. (2) Channel of attracting more satellite FDI enterprises, developing domestic 10 supporting industries: The establishment of satellite FDI enterprises helps to provide products of supporting industries that had to be imported by both FDI and local enterprises in the past, which contributes to the limitation of these products’ import, gradually decreasing import turnover of FDI and local country, and increasing VA as well as localization of exported goods of the receiving country. 2.1.3.2. FDI impact channels over the structure of import export goods in the receiving country a. FDI’s impacts on the structure of export goods: (1) Increase in the proportion of processed-refined goods and high knowledge-based ones; (2) High value added thanks to FDI’s concentration on serving the transition of export goods under the orientation of raising the proportion of processed-refined goods and high knowledge- based ones; (3) Growth in the proportion of new products in the structure of export goods. b. Impact on the structure of import goods: (1) Increase in the proportion of capital goods in the structure of import goods; (2) Decrease in the proportion of consumer goods in the structure of import goods; (3) Changes in the proportion of supporting industrial goods in the structure of import goods. 2.1.3.3. FDI impact transmission channels over import export market in the receiving country a. Impact on the scope of import export market: FDI can widen the area of import export market of the receiving country through the following channels: (1) FDI’s capability of promoting international trade between the receiving country and investing ones; (2) distributing networks of TNCs; (3) information channel of import export market. b. Impact on the structure if import export market: Major import export market of a country can be altered through changes in the structure of FDI investors int his country. It is that fact that, in many countries, the greater the investment size is, the greater the bilateral trade value between the investing country and the receiving one is. Big investors would become key and strategic trade partners instead of traditional ones of the receiving country. So, FDI can change the structure of major import export market in the receiving country. 2.2. International experiences in fostering FDI’s positive impacts and mitigating its negative impacts on the receiving country Emperical study on lessons learnt in China and Thailand helps the author to summarize five experiences for the case of Vietnam: (1) Developing local supporing industries; (2) Improving high quality human resource; (3) Encouraging FDI enterprises’ close connection with local ones; (4) Consistently upgrading infrastructure; (5) Selecting technology and foreign direct invetors; (6) Regulating and orienting FDI inflow in Vietnam with specific aims of developing the economy in each period; (7) Creating a favorable and transparent business environment. 2.3. Proposal of research frame on FDI’s impacts on import and export in Vietnam 2.3.1. Research frame on FDI’s impacts on import export of Vietnam 11 Based on the theory and practice of FDI’s impacts on import export of receiving country, the author modelized the research frame on FDI’s impacts on Vietnam’s import export as the following diagrams (2.1 and 2.2). Diagram 2.1: Resaech frame on FDI’s impacts on Vietanam’s export Source: Revised and proposed by the author Technology transfer and R&D activites FDI Direct FDI enterprises performing Export activities Competitiveness pressure over local export enterprises Export Structure of export goods Export turnover Knowledge transfer and labor movement Export market Information about export market Indiect FDI Direct Import Import turnover Struture of import goods FDI enteprises’ import of machine, equipment, technology and manufacturing inputs Import replacement by FDI enterprises’ goods FDI enterprises’ import of supporting industries non- prodcued by local market Reversed connection between FDI anterprises and local ones to improve manufacturing inputs supply of local enterpises Import market Attraction of more satellite FDI enterprises in the development of local industries of 12 Diagram 2.2: Resaech frame on FDI’s impacts on Vietanam’s import Source: Revised and proposed by the author 2.3.2. Proposal of model for evaluating FDI’s impacts on Vietnam import export The thesis aims at evaluating FDI’s impacts on Vietnam’s import export in three aspects: (1) FDI’s impacts on import export turnover; (2) FDI’s impacts on the structure of import export goods; (3) FDI’s impacts on import export market. However, due to time and data limits, in the quantitative analysis, the author only proposed the model for evaluating FDI’s impacts on import turnover and export turnover in Vietnam in order to provide partial proof for qualitative findings. This is the research drawback, which is expected to be completed in the upcoming studies. 2.3.2.1. Model to assess the impact of FDI on import-export turnover in Vietnam In this research, the author followed the gravity model by Magalhaes & Africano (2007), Zhang & Li (2007), Zhang & Song (2000), Jing Xiao (2009) with adjustment to be in appropriate with the case of Vietnam. Specifically, it is supposed that both import and export are mainly influenced by: (1) foreign direct investment capital (implemented by FDI); (2) Vietnam’s GDP; (3) GDP of partner countries; (4) geographical distance between Vietnam and partner countries; (5) foreign exchange between VND and currency of partner countries. The author proposed the research model on FDI’s impacts on import turnover and export turnover in Vietnam as the following: Ln(EXPit) = β0 + β1ln(FDIit) + β2ln(GDPPCit) + β3ln(VNGDPPCt) + β4ln(RERit) + β5(Distancei) + it0 Ln(IMPit) = β0 + β1ln(FDIit) + β2ln(GDPPCit) + β3ln(VNGDPPCt) + β4ln(RERit) + β5(Distancei) + it0 From the author’s perspective, the participation in WTO changed level of FDI’s impacts on Vietnam’s import and export turnover, and decreased influencing level of other independent variables like average GDP per capita, geographical distance and foreign exchange. Therefore, the author estimated FDI’s impacts and other independent variables on Vietnam’s import export turnover in two periods of pre and post WTO participation (1991-2006 and 2007-2016) to prove the conclusion. 2.3.2.2. Description of model’s variables + EXPit: Vietnam’s export turnover to partner country i in year t + IMPit: Vietnam’s import turnover from partner country i in year t + FDIit: implemented FDI capital in Vietnam of partner country i in year t + GDPPCit: Average Gross Domestic Product per capita of partner country i in year t + VNGDPPCt: Vietnam’s average Gross Domestic Product per capita in year t + DISi: Distance between Vietnam and partner country i + RERit: Foreign exchange between VND and currency of partner country i in year t + it0: deviation 2.3.2.3. Testing and estimation methods 2.3.2.4. Research data a. Data description The thesis applied panel data to evaluate FDI’s impacts on impoer turnover and export turnover in Vietnam. The author only considered 10 nations with biggest FDI Indirect 13 and bilateral trade value with Vietnam. The limitation of research scope waws decided based on the following reason: these 10 countries accounted for more than 90% total FDI in Vietnam and more than 80% total bilateral trade value between Vietnam and the world. Therefore, the consideration of 10 countries could assure representativeness and did not cause excessive data as an obstacle for the research. The collected data was in the period of 1992-2016. All of the above mentioned data regarding import turnover, export turnover, FDI, GDP...is calculated by USD with reference in the year 2000 to exclude inflation. b. Data collection source: Different sources. 2.3.2.5. Research hypothesis (related to the main variable) H1: FDI volume of partner country i in Vietnam has positive relationship with Vietnam’s export turnover to partner country i. H2: FDI volume of partner country i in Vietnam has positive relationship (in short term) and negative relationship (in long term) with Vietnam’s import turnover from partner country i. H3: WTO participation changed FDI’s impact level on Vietnam’s import turnover and export turnover. CHAPTER 3: STATUS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT’S IMPACTS ON VIETNAM’S IMPORT EXPORT IN THE PERIOD 1988-2018 3.1. Status of foreign direct investment and Vietnam’s import export in 1988-2018 3.1.1. Status of foreign direct investment in Vietnam in the period of 1988-2018 3.1.1.1. Size and number of projects Since the beginning of FDI attraction to the end of 2018, Vietnam obtained 29.643 projects with total amount of registered capital of 413,486 billion USD. The total implemented capital of 190,33 billion USD, accounting for 46,03% of total registered capital. Despite various changes in the period of 1988-2018, FDI inflow in Vietnam obviously showed an increasing tendency through thouse years. However, the rate of implemented capital compared with registered capital was at low level in relation to other countries in the region and in the world, which was 46,03% in the whole period of 1988-2018. 3.1.1.2. Investment structure Sectoral basis: In the period of 1988-2018, processing and manufacturing industries attracted 13.306 projects with total registered capital of 195,911 billion USD, accounting for 57,48% of total FDI. The second biggest FDI attracting sector was real estate business with 760 projects, equal to 57,933 billion USD, accounting for 17%. The third biggest one was manufacturing and distribution of electricity, water resource and air conditioner with 119 projects, equal to 23,093 billion USD, accounting for 6,78%. The rest 16 sectors accounted for nearly 20%. Investment mode basis: Most foreign investors chose the kind of business with 100% foreign capital. This was the favorable selection in terms of the number of projects and totoal registered capital with 20.772 projects, equal to 231,166 billion USD, accounting for 72,33%, which excelled the rest types of investment. 14 Investment place basis: Currently, all 63 provinces and cities in Vietnam have got FDI. With data in the period of 1988-2017, the leading city was Ho Chinh Minh, which was followed by Bình Dương, Hanoi, etc. The provinces attracting the least FDI in this period were Hà Giang, Lai Châu and Điện Biên. Investment partner basis: Until 2017, there had been 125 nations and territories directly investing in Vietnam. This number partially revealed the attraction of Vietnam in the eye of foreign investors. The four leading among them were South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, of which the number of licienced projects and the amount of registered FDI were the highest. 3.1.2. The status of import export in Vietnam in the period of 1988-2017 3.1.2.1. Import export turnover and the balance of trade Regarding export turnover: Vietnam’s export turnover experienced steady growth in the period of 1988-2017 with relatively stable growth speed. From 3,795 billion USD in 1988, Vietnam’s export turnover grew up to 14,449 billion USD in 2000, 72,237 billion USD in 2010 and 214,019 billion USD in 2017. Regarding import turnover: Import turnover tended to increase in the period of 1988-2017. There were only three years 1989, 1991 and 2009 when the growth rate was negative with -6,93%; -15,04% and -13,34% respectively. Regarding total import export turnover: According to General Department of Vietnam Customs, until 31/12/2017, the Customs system recorded total import export turnover of Vietnam’s goods at 425,123 billion USD, which marked the highest growth in those past years. Regarding balance of trade: With the exclusion of the early period post Doi Moi, (1988-1995), from 1996 to 2015, Vietnam always suffered from trade deficit. Especially, during the strategic period, there was deep trade deficit with 81,329 billion USD, accounting for 20,76% of total export turnover in this period. In the period of 2016-2018, together with the increase in totoal import export turnover, Vietnam succeeded in trade surplus with 2,521 billion USD in 2016 and 2,915 billion USD in 2017 and 6,79 billion USD in 2018. 3.1.2.2. Structure of import export goods The structure of export goods: In 2018, goods with the highest proportion in the export structure were industrial ones with 82,8%, increasing by 1,7% compared with 2017. The following goods in the list were based on agriculture, aquaculture, with 10,9%, decreasing by 1,2% compared with 2017 and those belonging to fuel, mineral with 1,9% of total export turnover. The structure of import goods: In 2018, this structure was rather diversified with the main focus on goods serving export purpose such as computer and electronic accessories with 42,2 billion USD, increasing by 11,7% compared with 2017; machine, equipment, accessories with 33,73 billion USD, equal to 2017; iron and steel with 9,9 billion USD, increasing by 9%; plastic fuel with 9,1 billion USD, increasing by 19,6%. 3.1.2.3. Import export market Export market in 2018, Asia was the biggest commercial partner of Vietnam’s enterprises in 2018 with export value of 43,95%; the next continents were America 15 with 23,84%; European with 19,01%, of which EU-28 accounted for 17,2%; Australia with 2% and Africa with 1,2%. Import market in 2018, the countries from which Vietnam imported the biggest number of goods were situated in Asia with 80,29% of total import turnover of the nation. The following continents were the America with turnover of 20,33 billion U.SD., European with nearly 17,81 billion U.SD., in which, that number of E.U. market was. 13,89 billion U.SD., accounting for 5,87% of totoal import turnover of the nation. 3.2. Status of foreign direct investment’s impacts on Vietnam’s import export in the period of 1988-2018 3.2.1. Status of FDI’s impacts on Vietnam’s import export turnover 3.2.1.1. FDI’s impacts on export turnover a. Direct impact channels: The export value of. FDI area continuously increased through those years and accounted for higher and higher proportion in total export turnover of the country. From only 6,81 billion USD and 47% of total export turnover in 2000, the export value of FDI area increased to 175,5 billion USD and accounted for 72,08% of total export turnover in 2018. So, FDI put positive impact on export turnover. National export turnover was raised thanks to FDI’s increase in export value. b. Indirect impact channels (1) Competitiveness pressure Positive impacts: The establishment of FDI enterprises in Vietnam resulted in pressure of competitiveness for local export enterprises, forcing these enterprises to invest in improving manufacturing technology, labour’s skills and qualification and management skills in order to produce and export competitive goods under the pressure of competitivess with FDI enterprises. Consequently, this would lead to the the increase in export opportunities and capability of local enterprises, which would raise Vietnam’s export turnover. However, the level of this impact in Vietnam was limited because foreign investors were not interested in joint venture and cooperation with local enterprises. Negative impacts: First, the appearance of FDI enterprises in Vietnam shifted the commerce of local export enterprises, which was from serving the export of those FDI enterprises to supplying them with products manufactured in Vietnam. Therefore, FDI resulted in the loss of export opportunities of local enterprises, which would decrease Vietnam’s export value. Second, the operation of FDI enterprises with strong financial background, high technology and good quality human resource caused harsh competitiveness, making many local export enterprises lose the input supply source for export and output consume market, which were achieved by FDI enterprises. Third, this race for cost reduction might make local enterprises choose poor quality manufacturing materials, use excessive labour compared with regulations of the export market. (2) Channels of technology transfer and R&D activity Positive impacts: First, through technology transfer channel of FDI enterprises: Technology transfer was FDI’s spillover effect channel over Vietnam’s export. FDI’s spreadingtechnological impacts on Vietnam were transmitted by two approaches: (i) foreign investors’ transfer of available technology to Vietnam; (ii) local 16 export enterpirses’ study of tips and techniques of applying technology through joint venture in business with FDI enterprises. Bofth of these two ways contributed to the increase in productivity of local export enterprises, which would lead to the rise in export turnover and local value of Vietnam’s export goods. Second, through R&D activity of FDI enterprises: Although there were big MNCs such as Nissan, Samsung, Hewlett- Parkard (HP), Bosch, Panasonic, Yamaha, Piaggio which established R&D center in Vietnam; their R&D activity in Vietnam only stopped at small and simple technology or researched suitable technology for the adaptation to Vietnam’s situation. Therefore, spreadingpositive technological impact of FDI on Vietnam’s export through R&D activity was still limited. Negative impacts: According to Report on implementation of technology transfer law by Ministry of technology and science, Vietnam in 2016, technology transfer activity through FDI’s projects in Vietnam in the past time was neither as successful as expected nor met the demand of economic development process. In fact, the technology transferred to Vietnam by foreign enterprises were not the advanced ones, some of which were at intermediate quality whereas most of which were out of date. This could make Vietnam become “a technology landsfill site”. (3) Channels of labor movement and knowledge transfer Positive impacts: The appearance of FDI enterprises created a large number of jobs for Vietnam’s employees. Also, Vietnam’s labor working for FDI enterprises would be equipped with export manufacturing knowledge and skills based on the requirements of foreign investors. Finally, local export enterprises in Vietnam might access and receive knowledge transfer from FDI enterprises through labor movement from FDI enterprises to these local ones. The application of export manufacturing knowledge, skill and experiences of this labor movement would bring about favorable conditions for the improvement of local human resource quality, which would promote export competence of local enterprises, enhancing national export competence. Negative impacts: Labor movement not only takes place in one way from FDI enterprises to Vietnam’s local export ones but also in the reversed way, which was even in a stronger basis. After working and getting experiences from local export enterprises, a large number of employees moved to FDI ones. This caused “brain drain” of local export enterprises. This phenomenon might result in negative impacts on export business activities in local enterprises due to the loss of human resource, especially, qualified and skillful labor in the area of manufacturing export goods. 3.2.1.2. FDI’s impacts on import turnover a. Direct impact channels Positive impacts: In the past, when Vietnam’s economy was outdated with underdeveloped manufacturing activities, there were numerous goods that could not be domestically produced even the basic ones. So, the only solution to this trouble was import. However, since the open-door period and foreign investment attraction, especially FDI inflow, Vietnam’s manufacturing experienced positive changes. FDI enterprises were established in different sectors and areas in Vietnam. There were various goods produced, many of which had been imported beforehand like electric ones, computer, phones, medicine, health equipment, car, motorbike, etc. So, FDI could 17 replace import goods with those of FDI enterprises made in Vietnam, which contributed to Vietnam’s import turnover decline. Negative impacts: (1) FDI enterprises’s import of equipment, technology and manufacturing inputs: In the early period of joining Vietnam’s market, FDI enterprises, especially those related to technology had to import machine, technology, input fuels and accessories, even high quality human resource; which were not provided by the local enterprises. So, in compliance with FD.I increase in Vietnam, import turnover of FDI area grew up, which resulted in Vietnam’s increasing import turnover. This impact was obvious in Vietnam because this was a developing country, of which technology level was low, human resource qualification was limited, and most FDI enterprises had to import equipment, technology and input fuel as well as accessories from investing countries. (2) FDI enterprises’ import of supporting industrial goods: Supporting industries played an important role in the economy, which directly created value added, improving competitiveness for the products and speeding up national industrialization. However, due to its weak supporting industries, Vietnam’s industry development largely depended on external resources. FDI enterprises in Vietnam had to import most goods of supporting industries to serve business and manufacturing activities. b. Indirect impact channels (1) Spillover effects through reversed connections between FDI enterprises and local ones to improve local suppliers’ capacity